Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Liverpool were slight favourites.
Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 53). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sunderland. Sunderland had 4.2 days of rest, Liverpool 3.2 and had to travel 196 km.
Away travel196 kmRest days4.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sunderland21%
Draw23%
Liverpool56%
Sunderland21%
Draw24%
Liverpool55%
Sunderland21%
Draw23%
Liverpool57%
Sunderland16%
Draw20%
Liverpool64%
Sunderland22%
Draw24%
Liverpool54%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 151
Team strength
Sunderland
Liverpool
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
87
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
84
62
AttackIn forecast
85
59
DefenceIn forecast
84
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLiverpool
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandLiverpool
1.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.16
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
64%
Scored inContext
84%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
9.64
ShotsContext
15.48
3.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.58
34%
On target shareContext
28%
7.18
Shots in the boxContext
9.88
70%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.84
OffsidesContext
2.71
14.12
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.58
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.04
4.20
BlocksContext
3.25
3.39
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.68
72%
Save rateContext
65%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
376
PassesContext
548
298
Accurate passesContext
471
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.04
FoulsContext
9.48
10.52
Fouls sufferedContext
10.56
2.04
Yellow cardsContext
1.64
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.98
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.00
ShotsContext
18.50
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
38%
On target shareContext
29%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
11.70
70%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
1.57
OffsidesContext
3.13
13.20
Shots allowedContext
9.40
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
3.70
BlocksContext
2.70
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
63%
Save rateContext
73%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
414
PassesContext
557
334
Accurate passesContext
485
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.06
11.40
FoulsContext
9.30
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km774 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Liverpool
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel196 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Liverpool |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 196 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 774 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10.7 | 10.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
5D. Ballard
20N. Mukiele
28E. Le Fée
27N. Sadiki
10N. Angulo
19M. Diarra
32T. Hume
9B. Brobbey
Liverpool
Confirmed XI
1A. Becker(G)
26A. Robertson
4V. van Dijk
5I. Konaté
3W. Endō
10A. Mac Allister
38R. Gravenberch
18C. Gakpo
7F. Wirtz
11Mohamed Salah
22H. Ekitiké
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Liverpool
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Liverpool-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
2.17points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
Liverpool · Away
1.25points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-5
- Scored
- 1.58
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sunderland | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | L 0–3 AD 2–2 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Burnley | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| West Ham | L 1–3 AW 3–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Brentford | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Tottenham | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Manchester City | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Leeds | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Brighton | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Newcastle | W 1–0 H | W 4–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Bournemouth | W 3–2 H | L 2–3 AW 4–2 H |
| Fulham | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Everton | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Wolves | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Manchester United | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 35 of 72 · 1.46 per game | 38 of 72 · 1.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Sunderland wins1 draws0 Liverpool wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 3 Dec 2025Liverpool1–1Sunderland
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.08 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.16 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.24 | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 64% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 12% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 64% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 16% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Sunderland | Liverpool | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.70 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 5.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.72 | 4.58 | |
| Match total | 8.12 | 10.41 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 11/25 | 79% 19/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 9/25 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 7/25 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.12 | 1.68 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.84 | 2.16 | |
| Match total | 3.96 | 3.84 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 13/25 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 11/25 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Sunderland | Liverpool | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.11 | 8.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 12.78 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 2.70 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 151 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.84league 3.73
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+36%league 38%
Fouls21.8league 21.3
Penalties0.23league 0.22
Home wins39%league 43%
Sunderland1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 Feb 23A · Rotherham1–21
Liverpool20 with this referee
Record11-4-5
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D1 Jan 26H · Leeds0–00
- L9 Nov 25A · Manchester City0–34
- L27 Sep 25A · Crystal Palace1–23
- W31 Aug 25H · Arsenal1–02
- L6 Apr 25A · Fulham2–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sunderland25 games · scored 27 · conceded 29
1
6
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
8
6
61-75
7
5
76-90
Liverpool25 games · scored 40 · conceded 35
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
10
5
31-45
9
5
46-60
4
6
61-75
14
12
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 23 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
