Telstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Telstar were slight favourites.
Telstar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 16). Absences weigh more on Excelsior. Telstar had 7.1 days of rest, Excelsior 6 and had to travel 61 km.
Away travel61 kmRest days7.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Telstar52%
Draw25%
Excelsior23%
Telstar51%
Draw26%
Excelsior24%
Telstar51%
Draw25%
Excelsior24%
Telstar45%
Draw27%
Excelsior29%
Telstar52%
Draw25%
Excelsior23%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Velsen-Zuid)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 28
Team strength
Telstar
Excelsior
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
24
AttackIn forecast
21
13
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisExcelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TelstarExcelsior
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.96
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.40
ShotsContext
11.70
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
37%
On target shareContext
33%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
64%
Box shareContext
59%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
15.10
Shots allowedContext
16.90
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
4.10
BlocksContext
4.80
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.80
66%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
361
PassesContext
361
285
Accurate passesContext
278
79%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.70
12.70
FoulsContext
13.30
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.96
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.40
ShotsContext
11.70
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
37%
On target shareContext
33%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
64%
Box shareContext
59%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
15.10
Shots allowedContext
16.90
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
4.10
BlocksContext
4.80
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.80
66%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
361
PassesContext
361
285
Accurate passesContext
278
79%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.70
12.70
FoulsContext
13.30
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Telstar
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km122 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Excelsior
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel61 km242 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Telstar |
Excelsior |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 61 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 122 km | 242 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
6D. Bakker
4G. Offerhaus
21D. Koswal
2J. Hardeveld
17N. Rossen
8T. Owusu
11T. Noslin
39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp
27P. Brouwer
9Milan Zonneveld
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
12A. Zagré
3R. Meissen
4C. Widell
2Ilias Bronkhorst
8M. Tielemans
23I. Yegoian
6A. Carlén
11G. de Regt
9S. Włodarczyk
30D. Sanches Fernandes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Telstar
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Excelsior
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Telstar+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Excelsior-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Telstar · Home
0.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 2.40
Excelsior · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-4
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 2.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Telstar | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Heerenveen | L 2–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 4–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 1–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| FC Volendam | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 7 of 18 · 1.17 per game | 6 of 18 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Telstar | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Telstar | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Telstar | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 12.33 | 8.80 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.90 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Telstar | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 12.33 | 8.80 | 9.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.90 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.36league 3.36
Red cards0.32league 0.19
Cards 5+18%league 33%
Fouls18.5league 22.2
Penalties0.18league 0.23
Home wins43%league 49%
TelstarNo previous matches with this referee.
Excelsior1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D17 Sep 23H · Almere City FC0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Telstar10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
5
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
4
46-60
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
5
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
4
46-60
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
