Telstar
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Telstar52.2%fair odds 1.92
Draw25.1%fair odds 3.99
Excelsior22.8%fair odds 4.39
Expected goals1.72 – 1.06total 2.77
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Excelsior
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Telstar ↓ · Excelsior → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Telstar goals, columns Excelsior goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.38
- 1–010.1%9.90
- 2–19.7%10.29
- 2–09.2%10.89
- 0–06.8%14.62
- 0–16.0%16.65
- 1–26.0%16.67
- 3–15.6%17.99
- 3–05.3%19.04
- 2–25.1%19.44
Winning margin
12.7%
Telstar by 3+
fair 7.86
16.2%
Telstar by 2
fair 6.18
23.3%
Telstar by 1
fair 4.30
25.1%
Draw
fair 3.99
14.1%
Excelsior by 1
fair 7.08
6.2%
Excelsior by 2
fair 16.24
2.5%
Excelsior by 3+
fair 40.28
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Telstar goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
10%4+
Excelsior goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar win | 52.2% | 52.0% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.1% | 25.2% | -0.1 pp |
| Excelsior win | 22.8% | 22.8% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 52.0% | +0.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.2% | 53.9% | +0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Telstar | 1.72 | 1.70 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Excelsior | 1.06 | 1.05 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Telstar win52.2%1.92
- Draw25.1%3.99
- Excelsior win22.8%4.39
- Double chance Telstar or draw77.2%1.29
- Double chance Telstar or Excelsior74.9%1.33
- Double chance Excelsior or draw47.8%2.09
- Draw no bet Telstar69.6%1.44
- Draw no bet Excelsior30.4%3.29
Goals
- Over 0.593.2%1.07
- Over 1.577.0%1.30
- Over 2.552.4%1.91
- Over 3.530.2%3.31
- Over 4.514.8%6.74
- Under 1.523.0%4.36
- Under 2.547.6%2.10
- Under 3.569.8%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes54.2%1.85
- No45.8%2.18
- Yes and over 2.542.2%2.37
- Telstar win and yes24.3%4.12
- Draw and yes18.2%5.48
- Excelsior win and yes11.6%8.61
Team goals
- Telstar over 0.582.0%1.22
- Telstar over 1.551.2%1.95
- Telstar over 2.524.7%4.05
- Excelsior over 0.565.3%1.53
- Excelsior over 1.528.6%3.50
- Excelsior over 2.59.1%10.94
- Telstar clean sheet34.7%2.88
- Excelsior clean sheet18.0%5.56
- Telstar win to nil27.9%3.59
- Excelsior win to nil11.1%8.97
Handicap
- Telstar −1.528.9%3.46
- Telstar −2.512.7%7.86
- Excelsior +1.571.1%1.41
- Excelsior +2.587.3%1.15
- Excelsior −1.58.6%11.57
- Telstar +1.591.4%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored94
Favourite won54.3%
Avg chance given to result43.6%
1X2 Brier0.545
Over 2.5 called right70.2%
BTTS called right60.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 14 | 38.0% | 21.4% |
| 40–50% | 30 | 44.2% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 25 | 55.7% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 14 | 63.7% | 78.6% |
| 70–80% | 8 | 75.6% | 87.5% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 81.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 72 of 94 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5420 | 0.5068 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.5% | 46.4% |
| Favourite won | 52.8% | 61.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 72 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 94 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.