Tondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Alverca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Tondela. Tondela had 6.1 days of rest, Alverca 5 and had to travel 198 km.
Away travel198 kmRest days6.1 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
Tondela39%
Draw30%
Alverca31%
Tondela37%
Draw27%
Alverca36%
Tondela39%
Draw30%
Alverca31%
Tondela32%
Draw31%
Alverca37%
Tondela40%
Draw29%
Alverca31%
Over 2.5 38%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Tondela)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalPedro Ramalho
- Cards per match 6.4
- Penalties per match 0.53
- Matches 15
Team strength
Tondela
Alverca
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
16
AttackIn forecast
38
29
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TondelaAlverca
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.43
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
38%
Scored inContext
71%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
9.71
ShotsContext
8.67
3.35
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.74
33%
On target shareContext
39%
5.76
Shots in the boxContext
5.75
59%
Box shareContext
65%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
3.06
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.86
Shots allowedContext
13.38
5.24
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.55
3.25
BlocksContext
4.24
4.05
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.05
75%
Save rateContext
65%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
305
PassesContext
351
238
Accurate passesContext
282
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.74
14.10
FoulsContext
13.00
11.19
Fouls sufferedContext
13.52
2.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
50%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
7.80
ShotsContext
8.50
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
31%
On target shareContext
40%
4.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
60%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
3.13
OffsidesContext
2.75
11.70
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
2.80
BlocksContext
4.90
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
81%
Save rateContext
63%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
282
PassesContext
348
213
Accurate passesContext
278
76%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.70
14.20
FoulsContext
13.00
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tondela
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km462 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alverca
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel198 km43 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tondela |
Alverca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 198 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 462 km | 43 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
27Rodrigo Conceição
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
2Bebeto
97Cicero
15S. Sithole
90M. Aïko
10J. Hodge
7Pedro Henryque
23B. Mbunga Kimpioka
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
55Francisco Chissumba
17Vasco Moreira
26Rhaldney
2Zoubdi
10Chiquinho
9M. Milovanović
20Figueiredo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tondela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alverca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Tondela · Home
0.60points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-6
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 1.30
Alverca · Away
0.70points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-7
- Scored
- 1.10
- Conceded
- 2.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Tondela | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Estoril | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | L 1–4 A |
| Benfica | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H |
| Moreirense | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Arouca | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Casa Pia | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Nacional | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| GIL Vicente | W 1–0 A | L 0–4 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| AVS | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Rio Ave | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Estrela | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Points | 14 of 60 · 0.70 per game | 21 of 60 · 1.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Tondela wins0 draws1 Alverca wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 12 Sep 2025Alverca1–0Tondela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tondela | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.71 | 2.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 48% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 62% | 29% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Tondela | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tondela | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 3.93 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.62 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.33 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 10/21 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 8/21 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 7/21 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.05 | 2.48 | |
| Match total | 4.72 | 4.91 | 5.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 14/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 9/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Tondela | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 4.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.76 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.30 | 5.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Pedro Ramalho Portugal · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.07league 4.93
Red cards0.33league 0.28
Cards 5+80%league 59%
Fouls28.8league 27.0
Penalties0.53league 0.45
Home wins27%league 41%
TondelaNo previous matches with this referee.
AlvercaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tondela21 games · scored 14 · conceded 35
3
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
8
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
8
61-75
1
10
76-90
Alverca21 games · scored 21 · conceded 36
6
0-15
2
6
16-30
6
8
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
6
61-75
9
5
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
61-75
4
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
