Tondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Tondela had 12.9 days of rest, Arouca 6 and had to travel 48 km.
Away travel48 kmRest days12.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Tondela37%
Draw28%
Arouca34%
Tondela38%
Draw27%
Arouca35%
Tondela37%
Draw28%
Arouca34%
Tondela30%
Draw28%
Arouca41%
Tondela38%
Draw27%
Arouca35%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Tondela)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves
- Cards per match 6.6
- Penalties per match 0.67
- Matches 12
Team strength
Tondela
Arouca
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
16
AttackIn forecast
28
29
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TondelaArouca
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.44
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
0.67
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
-0.64
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
40%
Scored inContext
56%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
11.47
ShotsContext
8.94
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.93
32%
On target shareContext
31%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.47
59%
Box shareContext
56%
5%
ConversionContext
12%
2.86
OffsidesContext
1.88
13.13
Shots allowedContext
14.00
5.53
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.25
3.29
BlocksContext
4.07
4.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.94
72%
Save rateContext
56%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
314
PassesContext
378
248
Accurate passesContext
308
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.55
13.93
FoulsContext
14.19
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.63
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.19
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
0.69
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
-0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
50%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.50
ShotsContext
8.80
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.78
30%
On target shareContext
28%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.56
57%
Box shareContext
58%
6%
ConversionContext
9%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.80
Shots allowedContext
14.00
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.30
BlocksContext
4.75
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
76%
Save rateContext
58%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
316
PassesContext
372
247
Accurate passesContext
300
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.52
14.90
FoulsContext
14.30
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
3.40
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tondela
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arouca
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel48 km3,074 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tondela |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 10 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 48 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 3,074 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
60N. Maviram
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
2Bebeto
10J. Hodge
97Cicero
17Ivan Cavaleiro
7Pedro Henryque
48Tiago Manso
29J. Siebatcheu
Arouca
Confirmed XI
58N. Mantl(G)
3José Fontán
5B. Popović
4M. Rocha
28Tiago Esgaio
89Pedro Santos
22E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
14Lee Hyun-Ju
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tondela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arouca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Tondela · Home
0.29points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-5
- Scored
- 0.43
- Conceded
- 1.57
Arouca · Away
0.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Tondela | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Nacional | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 H | L 0–4 H |
| GIL Vicente | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| AVS | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 H | L 0–6 A |
| Rio Ave | L 0–3 A | D 3–3 H |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Estrela | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Estoril | D 2–2 H | L 3–4 A |
| Benfica | L 0–3 A | L 0–5 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–3 A | L 0–4 H |
| Points | 9 of 45 · 0.60 per game | 14 of 45 · 0.93 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Tondela | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 2.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 63% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 44% | |
| Games | 15 | 16 |
| Tondela | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tondela | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.87 | 3.87 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.27 | 5.47 | |
| Match total | 9.14 | 9.34 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 7/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 6/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 5/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.93 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.47 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 5.25 | 5.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 11/15 | 81% 13/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 7/15 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Tondela | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 6.56 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 10.45 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.60 | 3.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 5.30 | 5.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.50league 5.12
Red cards1.08league 0.30
Cards 5+75%league 62%
Fouls26.8league 27.3
Penalties0.67league 0.44
Home wins25%league 37%
TondelaNo previous matches with this referee.
Arouca2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds3
- L7 Dec 25A · Estrela1–36
- W20 Sep 25A · Nacional2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tondela15 games · scored 9 · conceded 27
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
7
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
6
61-75
1
8
76-90
Arouca15 games · scored 17 · conceded 34
4
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
9
31-45
4
6
46-60
4
5
61-75
2
7
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
5
76-90
Arouca9 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
3
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
6
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
