Tondela vs Nacional – 25 Apr 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 31 Sat, Apr 25 · 15:30 Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela

Tondela 17th · 21 pts · 29 played LDLDL

0–2Full time

Nacional 14th · 28 pts · 30 played LLWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Nacional. Tondela had 5.8 days of rest, Nacional 7 and had to travel 1,175 km.

Away travel1,175 kmRest days5.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Tondela33%

Draw30%

Nacional37%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.18

Tondela39%

Draw27%

Nacional34%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.29

Tondela33%

Draw30%

Nacional37%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.18

Tondela27%

Draw29%

Nacional44%

Expected goals 0.98 – 1.33

Tondela34%

Draw29%

Nacional38%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.27

Over 2.5 40% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Tondela)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalHelder Malheiro

Cards per match 5.8
Penalties per match 0.53
Matches 55

Team strength

Tondela

Nacional

16 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 17

16 AttackIn forecast 15

29 DefenceIn forecast 13

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tondela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nacional

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tondela

Nacional

0.72 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.07

1.66 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.37

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

-0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

41% Scored inContext 67%

17% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.59 ShotsContext 11.90

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.17

33% On target shareContext 35%

6.11 Shots in the boxContext 7.29

61% Box shareContext 57%

8% ConversionContext 9%

2.90 OffsidesContext 2.10

13.00 Shots allowedContext 13.80

4.93 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.32 BlocksContext 3.90

3.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.21

72% Save rateContext 70%

43% PossessionIn forecast 45%

320 PassesContext 322

252 Accurate passesContext 248

79% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.79

13.97 FoulsContext 14.33

11.62 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

2.62 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 29 and 30 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

0.82 xGVia Att/Def 0.73

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

+0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

50% Scored inContext 40%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

8.50 ShotsContext 12.70

2.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

34% On target shareContext 35%

6.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

64% Box shareContext 53%

11% ConversionContext 4%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.80

14.30 Shots allowedContext 11.80

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.70 BlocksContext 3.00

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

72% Save rateContext 76%

44% PossessionIn forecast 49%

336 PassesContext 355

266 Accurate passesContext 283

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.79

13.50 FoulsContext 13.90

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 3.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tondela

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km166 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nacional

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,175 km1,944 km in 14d

Schedule load17%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tondela	Nacional
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 17
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 19 Apr	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 18 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,175 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	166 km	1,944 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tondela Confirmed XI

4-3-3

31Bernardo Fontes(G)

27Rodrigo Conceição 20Brayan Medina 44João Silva 2Bebeto

79Hugo Félix 10J. Hodge 32Juan Rodríguez

26A. van der Heide 16Rony Lopes 70M. Moudjatovic

Nacional Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Kaique(G)

5José Gomes 38Zé Vitor 34Léo Santos 16Alan Nuñez

6Matheus Dias 22Filipe Soares

11Paulinho Bóia 27Gabriel Veron 10Daniel Júnior

9J. Ramírez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tondela Absences are shown before kick-off

Nacional Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Tondela+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Nacional+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Tondela · Home 0.67points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 1-7-7
Scored: 0.73
Conceded: 1.27

Nacional · Away 0.73points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 2-5-8
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Tondela	Nacional
FC Porto	L 0–2 AL 0–2 H	L 0–1 HL 0–1 A
GIL Vicente	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H
Guimaraes	L 0–5 AL 0–1 H	L 1–2 A
AVS	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A	D 2–2 A
Rio Ave	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	W 4–0 HD 1–1 A
Santa Clara	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A	D 3–3 H
Estrela	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Alverca	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Estoril	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A
Benfica	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A	L 0–2 AL 1–2 H
Famalicao	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H
SC Braga	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
Moreirense	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 AW 3–2 H
Arouca	W 3–1 H	L 0–3 AL 1–2 H
Casa Pia	L 1–2 H	D 0–0 HW 2–0 A
Sporting CP	L 0–3 H	L 1–2 AL 1–4 H
Points	21 of 84 · 0.75 per game	25 of 87 · 0.86 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Tondela wins0 draws1 Nacional wins

Goals per game1.00 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

15 Dec 2025Nacional3–1Tondela

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Tondela	Nacional	Forecast
Scored per game	0.72	1.07
Conceded per game	1.66	1.37
Match goals	2.38	2.43	2.28
Over 1.5	66%	70%
Over 2.5	52%	43%	40%
Over 3.5	28%	20%
Both teams scored	34%	50%	47%
Clean sheets	17%	20%
Failed to score	59%	33%
Games	29	30

	Tondela	Nacional	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	0.50
Conceded per game	1.50	1.10
Match goals	2.40	1.60	2.28
Over 1.5	70%	50%
Over 2.5	40%	20%	40%
Over 3.5	40%	0%
Both teams scored	40%	20%	47%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	50%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tondela	Nacional	League
Corners
Corners won	3.66	4.24
Corners conceded	5.52	6.07
Match total	9.18	10.31	9.33
Over 8.5	52% 15/29	69% 20/29
Over 9.5	45% 13/29	66% 19/29
Over 10.5	38% 11/29	52% 15/29
Cards
Cards	2.69	3.00
Opponent cards	2.31	2.47
Match total	5.00	5.47	5.07
Over 3.5	69% 20/29	73% 22/30
Over 4.5	52% 15/29	70% 21/30

	Tondela	Nacional	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.70
Corners conceded	6.00	6.00
Match total	10.00	10.70	9.33
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	3.20
Opponent cards	2.50	2.60
Match total	5.20	5.80	5.07
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Helder Malheiro Portugal · 55 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.44league 4.80

Red cards0.31league 0.24

Cards 5+69%league 57%

Fouls29.3league 26.8

Penalties0.53league 0.43

Home wins47%league 41%

Tondela1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.0.0 · 5.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L9 Mar 26H · Rio Ave0–10

Nacional3 with this referee

Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.0 Pens for · against2 · 0

W4 Oct 25H · Moreirense3–21
L6 Apr 25H · Estrela0–11
L20 Sep 24H · SC Braga0–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.