Tondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Tondela were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Tondela. Tondela had 8.2 days of rest, Rio Ave 8 and had to travel 108 km.
Away travel108 kmRest days8.2 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Tondela44%
Draw30%
Rio Ave26%
Tondela43%
Draw27%
Rio Ave30%
Tondela44%
Draw30%
Rio Ave26%
Tondela38%
Draw31%
Rio Ave32%
Tondela46%
Draw28%
Rio Ave26%
Over 2.5 38%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Tondela)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Malheiro
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.51
- Matches 53
Team strength
Tondela
Rio Ave
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
16
AttackIn forecast
18
29
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TondelaRio Ave
0.79
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.96
1.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
46%
Scored inContext
54%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
10.13
ShotsContext
9.13
3.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
38%
6.25
Shots in the boxContext
5.71
61%
Box shareContext
59%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.95
OffsidesContext
2.54
13.00
Shots allowedContext
15.88
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.38
3.43
BlocksContext
4.29
3.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.61
74%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
306
PassesContext
376
239
Accurate passesContext
312
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.79
14.17
FoulsContext
12.96
11.29
Fouls sufferedContext
15.17
2.71
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
0.61
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
60%
Scored inContext
30%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
8.00
ShotsContext
8.60
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.63
34%
On target shareContext
34%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
4.78
64%
Box shareContext
52%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.60
Shots allowedContext
16.00
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.50
BlocksContext
4.10
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
77%
Save rateContext
59%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
293
PassesContext
384
226
Accurate passesContext
320
77%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.73
14.10
FoulsContext
11.80
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
15.70
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tondela
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rio Ave
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel108 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tondela |
Rio Ave |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 108 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
44João Silva
27Rodrigo Conceição
32Juan Rodríguez
10J. Hodge
2Bebeto
90M. Aïko
7Pedro Henryque
23B. Mbunga Kimpioka
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
99E. van der Gouw(G)
6N. Abbey
39Gustavo Mancha
32J. Brabec
17M. Vrousai
5A. Ntoi
44T. Nikitscher
18D. Špikić
80O. Pohlmann
7Diogo Bezerra
11Jalen Blesa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tondela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Tondela · Home
0.67points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-6
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.33
Rio Ave · Away
0.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Tondela | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Estrela | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Alverca | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Estoril | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | L 0–4 H |
| Benfica | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Moreirense | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Arouca | W 3–1 H | L 0–3 HD 3–3 A |
| Casa Pia | L 1–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Nacional | L 1–3 A | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H |
| GIL Vicente | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| AVS | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–3 H | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 19 of 69 · 0.83 per game | 18 of 69 · 0.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Tondela wins0 draws1 Rio Ave wins
Goals per game0.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 5 Oct 2025Rio Ave3–0Tondela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tondela | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.79 | 0.96 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.58 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 2.79 | 2.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 63% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 50% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 54% | 46% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Tondela | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.80 | 2.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tondela | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 3.74 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 6.74 | |
| Match total | 9.38 | 10.48 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 12/24 | 74% 17/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 10/24 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 9/24 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.79 | 2.46 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.96 | 4.96 | 5.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 17/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 12/24 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Tondela | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.90 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.70 | 5.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Malheiro Portugal · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.45league 4.84
Red cards0.32league 0.27
Cards 5+68%league 59%
Fouls29.2league 27.0
Penalties0.51league 0.45
Home wins47%league 41%
TondelaNo previous matches with this referee.
Rio Ave4 with this referee
Record0-3-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D8 Nov 25A · Alverca1–10
- D27 Apr 24A · Vizela1–12
- L21 May 23A · Pacos Ferreira1–33
- D5 Sep 22A · Chaves1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tondela24 games · scored 19 · conceded 38
5
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
8
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
8
61-75
2
11
76-90
Rio Ave24 games · scored 23 · conceded 44
2
3
0-15
4
7
16-30
4
8
31-45
3
8
46-60
5
9
61-75
5
9
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
4
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 6 · conceded 22
1
0-15
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
