Torino vs AS Roma – 18 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 21 Sun, Jan 18 · 17:00 Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino

Torino 13th · 23 pts · 20 played WLWLL

0–2Full time

AS Roma 5th · 39 pts · 20 played LWLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were slight favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 36). Torino had 7.9 days of rest, AS Roma 8 and had to travel 526 km.

Away travel526 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 2

Torino23%

Draw27%

AS Roma50%

Expected goals 0.98 – 1.55

Torino24%

Draw26%

AS Roma50%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.65

Torino24%

Draw27%

AS Roma49%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.54

Torino18%

Draw25%

AS Roma57%

Expected goals 0.88 – 1.74

Torino24%

Draw26%

AS Roma50%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.66

Over 2.5 47% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

No weather data yet

RefereeDaniele Chiffi

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 71

Team strength

Torino

AS Roma

36 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

39 AttackIn forecast 72

47 DefenceIn forecast 75

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Torino

AS Roma

1.05 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.30

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

70% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 45%

12.10 ShotsContext 13.55

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

36% On target shareContext 35%

7.75 Shots in the boxContext 9.53

65% Box shareContext 68%

9% ConversionContext 9%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.87

12.90 Shots allowedContext 10.25

3.95 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

3.55 BlocksContext 2.88

2.72 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.21

65% Save rateContext 86%

45% PossessionIn forecast 58%

367 PassesContext 486

292 Accurate passesContext 407

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.91

13.70 FoulsContext 14.55

10.95 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 2.05

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.23

80% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.60 ShotsContext 12.60

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

37% On target shareContext 36%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.44

67% Box shareContext 70%

9% ConversionContext 11%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.57

11.80 Shots allowedContext 10.00

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

4.00 BlocksContext 3.56

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

66% Save rateContext 88%

45% PossessionIn forecast 55%

366 PassesContext 478

287 Accurate passesContext 396

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.90

13.30 FoulsContext 14.20

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Torino

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km863 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AS Roma

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel526 km1,008 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Torino	AS Roma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 10 Jan	8Serie A 2025-2026, 10 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	526 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	863 km	1,008 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 3 / 4	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	4.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Torino Confirmed XI

3-1-4-2

1A. Paleari(G)

23Saúl Coco 44A. Ismajli 61A. Tamèze

6E. İlkhan

7Z. Aboukhlal 66G. Gineitis 10N. Vlašić 20V. Lazaro

26C. Ngonge 19C. Adams

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini

43Wesley 17K. Koné 4B. Cristante 2D. Rensch

7L. Pellegrini 21P. Dybala

14D. Malen

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Torino Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AS Roma Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Torino-0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
AS Roma+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Torino · Home 1.10points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-5
Scored: 1.10
Conceded: 1.80

AS Roma · Away 1.80points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 6-0-4
Scored: 1.10
Conceded: 0.70

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Torino	AS Roma
Atalanta	L 0–2 AL 0–3 H	L 0–1 A
Udinese	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 H
Verona	W 3–0 A	W 2–0 H
Cagliari	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 A
Sassuolo	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A
Cremonese	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 A
AC Milan	L 2–3 H	L 0–1 A
Lecce	L 1–2 A	W 2–0 A
Como	L 1–5 H	W 1–0 H
Juventus	D 0–0 A	L 1–2 A
Pisa	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 A
Bologna	D 0–0 A	W 1–0 H
Genoa	W 2–1 H	W 3–1 H
Napoli	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 H
Lazio	D 3–3 A	W 1–0 A
Parma	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Fiorentina	D 0–0 H	W 2–1 A
Inter	L 0–5 A	L 0–1 H
Points	20 of 57 · 1.05 per game	39 of 57 · 2.05 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Torino wins2 draws6 AS Roma wins

Goals per game0.56 – 1.44 Over 2.522% Both scored33% Clean sheets11% · 56%

14 Sep 2025AS Roma0–1Torino
25 May 2025Torino0–2AS Roma
31 Oct 2024AS Roma1–0Torino
26 Feb 2024AS Roma3–2Torino
24 Sep 2023Torino1–1AS Roma
8 Apr 2023Torino0–1AS Roma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Torino	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.05	1.20
Conceded per game	1.60	0.60
Match goals	2.65	1.80	2.53
Over 1.5	65%	45%
Over 2.5	60%	25%	47%
Over 3.5	25%	10%
Both teams scored	45%	25%	50%
Clean sheets	40%	45%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	20	20

	Torino	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.40
Conceded per game	1.60	0.70
Match goals	2.70	2.10	2.53
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	50%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Torino	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	4.06	5.00
Corners conceded	4.50	3.30
Match total	8.56	8.30	8.83
Over 8.5	39% 7/18	40% 8/20
Over 9.5	39% 7/18	25% 5/20
Over 10.5	33% 6/18	25% 5/20
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.15
Opponent cards	1.45	2.30
Match total	3.25	4.45	3.95
Over 3.5	50% 10/20	70% 14/20
Over 4.5	20% 4/20	50% 10/20

	Torino	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.30
Corners conceded	4.20	3.30
Match total	8.20	7.60	8.83
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.50
Opponent cards	1.20	2.20
Match total	2.70	4.70	3.95
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Chiffi 71 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.73league 3.82

Red cards0.23league 0.17

Cards 5+38%league 36%

Fouls22.7league 25.7

Penalties0.20league 0.30

Home wins42%league 37%

Torino7 with this referee

Record2-1-4 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 0

L8 Dec 25H · AC Milan2–32
W15 Mar 25H · Empoli1–01
D4 Feb 24H · Salernitana0–02
W3 Sep 23H · Genoa1–02
L28 Feb 23A · Juventus2–42

AS Roma7 with this referee

Record4-1-2 Cards · opp.2.9 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds4

W4 May 25H · Fiorentina1–02
W16 Feb 25A · Parma1–03
W7 Dec 24H · Lecce4–12
D3 May 23A · Monza1–15
L18 Sep 22H · Atalanta0–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.