Tottenham vs Burnley – 16 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 16 · 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Tottenham

3–0Full time

Burnley

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Tottenham were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Burnley. Tottenham had ? days of rest, Burnley ? and had to travel 292 km.

Away travel292 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Tottenham44%

Draw25%

Burnley30%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.32

Tottenham43%

Draw27%

Burnley30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Tottenham43%

Draw26%

Burnley31%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.32

Tottenham37%

Draw26%

Burnley38%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.48

Tottenham44%

Draw27%

Burnley29%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.21

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 175

Team strength

Tottenham

Burnley

63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

56 AttackIn forecast 27

74 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Burnley

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tottenham

Burnley

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.86

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.40

80% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.80 ShotsContext 12.00

2.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

30% On target shareContext 40%

8.38 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

70% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 17%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.88

13.90 Shots allowedContext 9.50

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.70

4.89 BlocksContext 3.50

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.90

63% Save rateContext 70%

40% PossessionIn forecast 58%

313 PassesContext 471

242 Accurate passesContext 393

77% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.82 Team ratingContext 7.16

12.50 FoulsContext 10.30

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.90

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tottenham

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Burnley

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel292 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tottenham	Burnley
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	292 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1G. Vicario(G)

24D. Spence 37M. van de Ven 17C. Romero 23Pedro Porro

15L. Bergvall 14A. Gray 29P. Sarr

22B. Johnson 9Richarlison 20M. Kudus

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Burnley Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1M. Dúbravka(G)

3Q. Hartman 5M. Estève 18H. Ekdal 2K. Walker 22O. Sonne

11J. Anthony 24J. Cullen 29J. Laurent 28H. Mejbri

9L. Foster

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tottenham Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Burnley Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Tottenham+1.3 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Burnley-0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Tottenham · Home No home games yet this season.

Burnley · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

5 Tottenham wins0 draws1 Burnley wins

Goals per game2.17 – 0.67 Over 2.550% Both scored33% Clean sheets50% · 17%

11 May 2024Tottenham2–1Burnley
2 Sep 2023Burnley2–5Tottenham
15 May 2022Tottenham1–0Burnley
23 Feb 2022Burnley1–0Tottenham
28 Feb 2021Tottenham4–0Burnley
26 Oct 2020Burnley0–1Tottenham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Tottenham	Burnley	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.96
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	60%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Tottenham	Burnley	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.96
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	60%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tottenham	Burnley	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	11.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Tottenham	Burnley	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	4.80
Corners conceded	5.40	3.50
Match total	10.30	8.30	11.00
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.50
Opponent cards	2.10	2.30
Match total	4.00	3.80	3.00
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 175 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 2.50

Red cards0.14league 0.50

Cards 5+34%league 0%

Fouls22.4league 20.5

Penalties0.30league 0.00

Home wins43%league 50%

Tottenham12 with this referee

Record4-4-4 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 3 Reds3

D4 May 25A · West Ham1–12
L28 Apr 24H · Arsenal2–32
D3 Feb 24A · Everton2–20
L6 Nov 23H · Chelsea1–44
W19 Aug 23H · Manchester United2–01

Burnley6 with this referee

Record1-1-4 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.2 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L6 Apr 24A · Everton0–12
L11 Nov 23A · Arsenal1–31
L10 Apr 22A · Norwich0–21
D29 Aug 21H · Leeds1–14
W13 Feb 21A · Crystal Palace3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.