Tottenham
Attack+19%
Defense risk−22%
Our take
Tottenham were slight favourites.
Tottenham were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Tottenham. Tottenham were without Pedro Porro and X. Simons. Coventry were without A. Amenda. Tottenham had 9.1 days of rest, Coventry 7 and had to travel 138 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel138 kmRest days9.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Tottenham53%
Draw23%
Coventry24%
Tottenham49%
Draw26%
Coventry25%
Tottenham53%
Draw24%
Coventry23%
Tottenham45%
Draw25%
Coventry30%
Tottenham51%
Draw24%
Coventry24%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
12°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 72%
RefereeAndrew Madley
- Cards per match 0.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Tottenham
Coventry
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
56
AttackIn forecast
47
74
DefenceIn forecast
59
35
Form indexContext
57
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCoventry
Attack+7%
Defense risk−13%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
TottenhamCoventry
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
-0.60
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
33%
Scored inContext
33%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
13.83
ShotsContext
10.00
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
27%
On target shareContext
37%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
60%
Box shareContext
60%
4%
ConversionContext
8%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.20
14.50
Shots allowedContext
17.67
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
4.00
BlocksContext
7.40
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.17
65%
Save rateContext
46%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
531
PassesContext
329
466
Accurate passesContext
251
88%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.74
13.67
FoulsContext
10.50
13.67
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
0.83
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.17
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
60%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.80
ShotsContext
11.70
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
25%
On target shareContext
33%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
66%
Box shareContext
62%
6%
ConversionContext
15%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.56
12.20
Shots allowedContext
14.30
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.30
BlocksContext
5.67
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.90
66%
Save rateContext
50%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
500
PassesContext
411
433
Accurate passesContext
334
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.90
FoulsContext
9.20
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
LDDLD
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 35 · 3 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
Coventry
LLLWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel138 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 57 · 6 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
Coventry |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.1Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 138 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 524 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
31A. Kinský(G)
37M. van de Ven
6J. van Hecke
4T. Adarabioyo
3A. Robertson
10J. Maddison
16S. Tonali
14A. Gray
22O. Marmoush
20M. Kudus
19D. Solanke
Coventry
Confirmed XI
19C. Rushworth(G)
3J. Dasilva
2E. Pinnock
4B. Thomas
27M. van Ewijk
6M. Grimes
8C. Yirenkyi
7T. Sakamoto
5J. Rudoni
23S. Thomas-Asante
49S. Chérif
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −11.2% · Defence line −17.4% of weighted minutes
- DEF Pedro Porro Starter 6.97 Def −11.6%
- MID X. Simons Starter 7.02 Att −5.3% Def −3.8%
- MID R. Bentancur Rotation 6.68 Att −2.7% Def −1.9%
- ATT W. Odobert Rotation 6.83 Att −3.0%
- MID M. Mudryk Depth 6.60 Att −0.1% Def −0.1%
Coventry
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −8.2% · Defence line −11.7% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Amenda Starter 6.70 Def −8.0%
- ATT H. Wright Rotation 6.78 Att −5.9%
- MID J. Eccles Rotation 6.83 Att −2.3% Def −1.1%
- DEF L. Woolfenden Rotation 6.91 Def −1.8%
- DEF K. Kesler-Hayden Rotation 6.68 Def −0.8%
Total impact vs full squads
- Tottenham-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Coventry+0.3 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Coventry · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Tottenham | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Newcastle | L 0–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | Coventry | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.67 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 17% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Tottenham | Coventry | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.67 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 17% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 67% | |
| Games | 10 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | Coventry | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 8.50 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 2.50 | 4.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Tottenham | Coventry | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.20 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 11.60 | 7.55 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 2.80 | 4.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrew Madley 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards0.00league 3.94
Red cards0.00league 0.19
Cards 5+0%league 43%
Fouls18.0league 23.0
Penalties0.00league 0.16
Home wins0%league 39%
TottenhamNo previous matches with this referee.
CoventryNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tottenham6 games · scored 3 · conceded 9
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
Coventry6 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
6
61-75
3
2
76-90
Coventry10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
61-75
8
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
