Tottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Leeds were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 64). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Tottenham. Tottenham had 8 days of rest, Leeds 10 and had to travel 272 km.
Away travel272 kmRest days8 · 10Matches / 14d1 · 1
Tottenham40%
Draw26%
Leeds34%
Tottenham39%
Draw27%
Leeds34%
Tottenham40%
Draw26%
Leeds33%
Tottenham32%
Draw26%
Leeds42%
Tottenham39%
Draw27%
Leeds34%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeJarred Gillett
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 107
Team strength
Tottenham
Leeds
64
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
73
56
AttackIn forecast
69
74
DefenceIn forecast
77
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLeeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TottenhamLeeds
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.34
1.54
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.49
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
80%
Scored inContext
69%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.17
ShotsContext
12.77
3.94
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.09
35%
On target shareContext
32%
7.79
Shots in the boxContext
8.76
68%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.12
12.49
Shots allowedContext
12.14
4.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.18
3.53
BlocksContext
3.88
2.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
64%
Save rateContext
65%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
410
PassesContext
399
334
Accurate passesContext
318
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.89
FoulsContext
10.51
10.03
Fouls sufferedContext
11.34
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.66
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
80%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.30
ShotsContext
13.40
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
42%
On target shareContext
31%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.89
70%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.30
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.80
BlocksContext
4.40
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
56%
Save rateContext
69%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
387
PassesContext
383
313
Accurate passesContext
300
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.94
13.60
FoulsContext
11.70
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
3.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km325 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Leeds
Rest10 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel272 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
Leeds |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 3 May | 10Premier League 2025-2026, 1 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 272 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 325 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
31A. Kinský(G)
13I. Udogie
37M. van de Ven
4K. Danso
23Pedro Porro
30R. Bentancur
6João Palhinha
11M. Tel
22C. Gallagher
39R. Kolo Muani
9Richarlison
Leeds
Confirmed XI
26K. Darlow(G)
5P. Struijk
15J. Bijol
6J. Rodon
24J. Justin
22A. Tanaka
4E. Ampadu
18A. Stach
7D. James
11B. Aaronson
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Leeds
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tottenham-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Leeds+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
0.65points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-10
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.76
Leeds · Away
0.82points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-8-7
- Scored
- 1.12
- Conceded
- 1.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Tottenham | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Wolves | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Brighton | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Sunderland | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Nottingham Forest | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A | W 3–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Liverpool | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 AD 3–3 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 1–3 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Fulham | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Arsenal | L 1–4 HL 1–4 A | L 0–4 HL 0–5 A |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A | L 3–4 AD 0–0 H |
| Manchester United | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Manchester City | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Burnley | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H | W 3–1 HL 0–2 A |
| West Ham | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Bournemouth | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Brentford | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Chelsea | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Everton | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 34 of 102 · 1.00 per game | 43 of 102 · 1.26 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
6 Tottenham wins0 draws1 Leeds wins
Goals per game2.86 – 1.29
Over 2.5100%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets29% · 0%
- 4 Oct 2025Leeds1–2Tottenham
- 28 May 2023Leeds1–4Tottenham
- 12 Nov 2022Tottenham4–3Leeds
- 26 Feb 2022Leeds0–4Tottenham
- 21 Nov 2021Tottenham2–1Leeds
- 8 May 2021Leeds3–1Tottenham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 1.34 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.54 | 1.49 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 2.83 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | 57% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 31% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Tottenham | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.20 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.58 | 4.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.73 | 5.03 | |
| Match total | 10.31 | 9.62 | 10.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 20/33 | 66% 21/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 18/33 | 53% 17/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 14/33 | 41% 13/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.71 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 4.54 | 3.55 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 24/35 | 43% 15/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 20/35 | 34% 12/35 | |
| Tottenham | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 6.11 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 10.11 | 10.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.60 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jarred Gillett 107 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.80
Red cards0.09league 0.12
Cards 5+37%league 39%
Fouls20.1league 21.6
Penalties0.22league 0.20
Home wins37%league 42%
Tottenham14 with this referee
Record7-0-7
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L17 Jan 26H · West Ham1–25
- W28 Dec 25A · Crystal Palace1–02
- L1 Nov 25H · Chelsea0–14
- W13 Sep 25A · West Ham3–01
- L26 Feb 25H · Manchester City0–13
Leeds5 with this referee
Record0-3-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D21 Mar 26H · Brentford0–02
- D4 Jan 26H · Manchester United1–10
- L9 Nov 25A · Nottingham Forest1–31
- L23 Aug 25A · Arsenal0–52
- D9 Feb 22A · Aston Villa3–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tottenham35 games · scored 45 · conceded 54
4
7
0-15
5
3
16-30
10
19
31-45
7
5
46-60
6
6
61-75
13
14
76-90
Leeds35 games · scored 47 · conceded 52
7
4
0-15
6
7
16-30
11
5
31-45
7
10
46-60
8
11
61-75
8
15
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 13 · conceded 20
1
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
