Tottenham vs Manchester United – 8 Nov 2025

Premier League Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 8 · 12:30 Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Tottenham 6th · 17 pts · 10 played DWLWL

2–2Full time

Manchester United 8th · 17 pts · 10 played LWWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Tottenham were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Tottenham had 6.8 days of rest, Manchester United 6.9 and had to travel 262 km.

Away travel262 kmRest days6.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Tottenham43%

Draw26%

Manchester United31%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.33

Tottenham43%

Draw27%

Manchester United30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Tottenham44%

Draw26%

Manchester United31%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.30

Tottenham36%

Draw26%

Manchester United39%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.49

Tottenham42%

Draw27%

Manchester United31%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.23

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 66

Team strength

Tottenham

Manchester United

72 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

56 AttackIn forecast 72

74 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tottenham

Manchester United

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.78

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

+0.69 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

80% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.70 ShotsContext 15.30

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

35% On target shareContext 35%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

69% Box shareContext 65%

18% ConversionContext 11%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.50

12.30 Shots allowedContext 11.70

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

2.56 BlocksContext 2.89

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

85% Save rateContext 61%

54% PossessionIn forecast 51%

431 PassesContext 442

362 Accurate passesContext 358

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.91

11.70 FoulsContext 9.78

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.78

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

+0.54 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

80% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.30 ShotsContext 15.30

2.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

31% On target shareContext 35%

6.40 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

68% Box shareContext 65%

17% ConversionContext 11%

1.90 OffsidesContext 1.50

13.40 Shots allowedContext 11.70

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.10 BlocksContext 2.89

3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

82% Save rateContext 61%

52% PossessionIn forecast 51%

424 PassesContext 442

357 Accurate passesContext 358

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.91

10.56 FoulsContext 9.78

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tottenham

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Manchester United

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel262 km186 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tottenham	Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Nov	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	262 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	573 km	186 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	15.2	16.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1G. Vicario(G)

24D. Spence 37M. van de Ven 17C. Romero 23Pedro Porro

29P. Sarr 6João Palhinha

9Richarlison 7X. Simons 22B. Johnson

39R. Kolo Muani

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester United Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

31S. Lammens(G)

23L. Shaw 5J. Maguire 4M. de Ligt

13P. Dorgu 8Bruno Fernandes 18Casemiro 3N. Mazraoui

19B. Mbeumo 16A. Diallo

10Matheus Cunha

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tottenham Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester United Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Tottenham-0.6 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Manchester United+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Tottenham · Home 0.80points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Manchester United · Away 1.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-2
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Tottenham	Manchester United
Chelsea	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 H
Brighton	D 2–2 A	W 4–2 H
Manchester City	W 2–0 A	L 0–3 A
Burnley	W 3–0 H	W 3–2 H
Points	7 of 12 · 1.75 per game	9 of 12 · 2.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

4 Tottenham wins2 draws4 Manchester United wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.50 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 20%

21 May 2025Tottenham1–0Manchester United
16 Feb 2025Tottenham1–0Manchester United
29 Sep 2024Manchester United0–3Tottenham
14 Jan 2024Manchester United2–2Tottenham
19 Aug 2023Tottenham2–0Manchester United
27 Apr 2023Tottenham2–2Manchester United

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Tottenham	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.70
Conceded per game	0.80	1.60
Match goals	2.50	3.30	2.92
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	56%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	59%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

	Tottenham	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.70
Conceded per game	0.80	1.60
Match goals	2.50	3.30	2.92
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	56%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	59%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tottenham	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	6.89	3.90
Corners conceded	5.44	5.10
Match total	12.33	9.00	9.86
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	78% 7/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.30
Opponent cards	1.50	2.50
Match total	3.60	3.80	3.66
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

	Tottenham	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	3.90
Corners conceded	5.30	5.10
Match total	10.90	9.00	9.86
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.30
Opponent cards	1.80	2.50
Match total	4.10	3.80	3.66
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 66 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.73league 3.56

Red cards0.08league 0.11

Cards 5+33%league 39%

Fouls20.7league 21.8

Penalties0.23league 0.18

Home wins38%league 51%

Tottenham2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

L22 Dec 24H · Liverpool3–61
W10 Feb 24H · Brighton2–12

Manchester United3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7 Pens for · against1 · 0

W30 Aug 25H · Burnley3–21
L4 Dec 24A · Arsenal0–23
W19 Oct 24H · Brentford2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.