Udinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Fiorentina. Udinese had 7 days of rest, Fiorentina 7.1 and had to travel 299 km.
Away travel299 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Udinese32%
Draw29%
Fiorentina39%
Udinese36%
Draw27%
Fiorentina37%
Udinese33%
Draw29%
Fiorentina38%
Udinese26%
Draw28%
Fiorentina46%
Udinese33%
Draw27%
Fiorentina39%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Udine)
No weather data yet
RefereeLuca Pairetto
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 70
Team strength
Udinese
Fiorentina
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
22
AttackIn forecast
42
18
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UdineseFiorentina
1.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.15
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
77%
Scored inContext
77%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
11.08
ShotsContext
13.54
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.69
31%
On target shareContext
27%
6.38
Shots in the boxContext
8.62
55%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.96
Shots allowedContext
12.85
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.68
3.31
BlocksContext
3.42
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.96
63%
Save rateContext
66%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
355
PassesContext
424
284
Accurate passesContext
359
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.77
FoulsContext
11.96
11.69
Fouls sufferedContext
16.27
1.85
Yellow cardsContext
2.27
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
70%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.00
ShotsContext
14.40
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
29%
On target shareContext
35%
4.89
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
52%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.71
11.80
Shots allowedContext
13.20
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.38
3.60
BlocksContext
4.33
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
68%
Save rateContext
67%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
356
PassesContext
436
280
Accurate passesContext
373
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.92
14.30
FoulsContext
11.70
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
17.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Udinese
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km459 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fiorentina
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel299 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Udinese |
Fiorentina |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Feb | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 299 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 459 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
13N. Bertola
27C. Kabasele
31T. Kristensen
33J. Zemura
32J. Ekkelenkamp
8J. Karlström
24J. Piotrowski
19K. Ehizibue
9K. Davis
10N. Zaniolo
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
6L. Ranieri
3D. Rugani
5M. Pongračić
65F. Parisi
4M. Brescianini
44N. Fagioli
8R. Mandragora
17J. Harrison
10A. Guðmundsson
20M. Kean
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Udinese
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fiorentina
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Udinese-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Fiorentina+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Udinese · Home
1.23points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.38
Fiorentina · Away
0.85points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-6
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 1.54
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Udinese | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Lecce | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Verona | W 3–1 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Inter | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Pisa | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Como | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Lazio | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Napoli | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H |
| Genoa | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Atalanta | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Juventus | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Cagliari | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 32 of 75 · 1.28 per game | 21 of 75 · 0.84 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Udinese wins1 draws5 Fiorentina wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.78
Over 2.556%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets22% · 33%
- 21 Dec 2025Fiorentina5–1Udinese
- 25 May 2025Udinese2–3Fiorentina
- 23 Dec 2024Fiorentina1–2Udinese
- 14 Jan 2024Fiorentina2–2Udinese
- 24 Sep 2023Udinese0–2Fiorentina
- 14 May 2023Fiorentina2–0Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Udinese | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.08 | 1.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 2.65 | 2.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 62% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 69% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 23% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Udinese | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.50 | 2.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Udinese | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 4.65 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.46 | 4.42 | |
| Match total | 9.21 | 9.07 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 12/24 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 11/24 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 10/24 | 27% 7/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.77 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.65 | 4.88 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 13/26 | 73% 19/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 8/26 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Udinese | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 8.90 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 6.00 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Pairetto 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.54league 3.77
Red cards0.27league 0.19
Cards 5+53%league 37%
Fouls25.7league 25.2
Penalties0.41league 0.31
Home wins36%league 38%
Udinese4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L25 Apr 24H · AS Roma1–23
- D14 Jan 24A · Fiorentina2–21
- L21 May 23H · Lazio0–13
- D30 Jan 23H · Verona1–11
Fiorentina7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.9
Pens for · against3 · 4
Reds1
- L6 Dec 25A · Sassuolo1–33
- W6 Oct 24H · AC Milan2–12
- D18 Feb 24A · Empoli1–12
- D14 Jan 24H · Udinese2–21
- W17 Sep 23H · Atalanta3–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Udinese26 games · scored 28 · conceded 39
3
6
0-15
5
6
16-30
5
5
31-45
7
8
46-60
5
6
61-75
3
8
76-90
Fiorentina25 games · scored 29 · conceded 37
3
5
0-15
4
5
16-30
3
5
31-45
9
8
46-60
6
5
61-75
4
9
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
6
4
46-60
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
