Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
1.FC Köln were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards 1.FC Köln. Union Berlin had 7.8 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 7 and had to travel 479 km.
Away travel479 kmRest days7.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Union Berlin32%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln44%
Union Berlin43%
Draw27%
1.FC Köln30%
Union Berlin32%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln44%
Union Berlin25%
Draw23%
1.FC Köln52%
Union Berlin32%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln43%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 92
Team strength
Union Berlin
1.FC Köln
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
42
AttackIn forecast
36
41
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union Berlin1.FC Köln
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.45
1.77
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
74%
Scored inContext
87%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.84
ShotsContext
12.71
3.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
30%
On target shareContext
34%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.03
71%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.39
12.61
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.42
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.88
BlocksContext
3.83
3.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
65%
Save rateContext
64%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
317
PassesContext
396
228
Accurate passesContext
321
72%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.19
FoulsContext
7.87
9.61
Fouls sufferedContext
10.06
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.81
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.69
1.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.10
ShotsContext
13.60
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
37%
On target shareContext
34%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.60
64%
Box shareContext
79%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.57
15.00
Shots allowedContext
11.10
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.63
BlocksContext
2.80
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
64%
Save rateContext
58%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
318
PassesContext
386
226
Accurate passesContext
314
71%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.40
FoulsContext
7.60
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km300 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1.FC Köln
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel479 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
1.FC Köln |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Apr | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 479 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 300 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
25C. Klaus(G)
34S. Nsoki
4Diogo Leite
5D. Doekhi
15T. Rothe
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
13A. Schäfer
18J. Juranović
10Ilyas Ansah
7O. Burke
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
32K. Lund
39C. Özkacar
22J. Simpson-Pusey
28S. Sebulonsen
6E. Martel
5T. Krauß
30M. Bülter
16J. Kamiński
7G. Waldschmidt
13S. El Mala
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- 1.FC Köln+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
1.20points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-5
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.60
1.FC Köln · Away
0.80points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-6-7
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 1.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Union Berlin | 1.FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | L 1–3 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–4 AD 2–2 H | L 1–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 AW 4–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | D 3–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 AW 4–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A | D 2–2 AL 3–4 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 AL 2–4 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 29 of 90 · 0.97 per game | 31 of 90 · 1.03 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Union Berlin wins2 draws1 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.29 – 0.71
Over 2.529%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets71% · 14%
- 20 Dec 20251.FC Köln0–1Union Berlin
- 11 May 20241.FC Köln3–2Union Berlin
- 20 Dec 2023Union Berlin2–01.FC Köln
- 4 Mar 2023Union Berlin0–01.FC Köln
- 11 Sep 20221.FC Köln0–1Union Berlin
- 1 Apr 2022Union Berlin1–01.FC Köln
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.45 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.77 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.16 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 61% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 77% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 13% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Union Berlin | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.40 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 9.26 | 10.48 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 20/30 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 13/30 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 8/30 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.23 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.94 | 2.39 | |
| Match total | 4.17 | 4.29 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 17/31 | 65% 20/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 13/31 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Union Berlin | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 6.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 11.43 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.00 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 92 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.22league 3.71
Red cards0.24league 0.17
Cards 5+49%league 38%
Fouls22.3league 20.3
Penalties0.29league 0.37
Home wins55%league 44%
Union Berlin12 with this referee
Record4-2-6
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W12 Dec 25H · RB Leipzig3–12
- L24 Oct 25A · Werder Bremen0–10
- L31 Aug 25A · Borussia Dortmund0–30
- D1 Feb 25H · RB Leipzig0–03
- L28 Sep 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–11
1.FC Köln2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W2 Nov 25H · Hamburger SV4–11
- L20 Jan 24H · Borussia Dortmund0–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin31 games · scored 35 · conceded 55
2
4
0-15
6
5
16-30
4
17
31-45
5
10
46-60
5
5
61-75
13
14
76-90
1.FC Köln31 games · scored 45 · conceded 53
8
5
0-15
5
7
16-30
3
11
31-45
7
8
46-60
3
12
61-75
19
10
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 9 · conceded 21
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
4
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
