Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Union Berlin were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. 1899 Hoffenheim usually keep the ball (49% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Union Berlin had 12.9 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 14 and had to travel 483 km.
Away travel483 kmRest days12.9 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Union Berlin44%
Draw26%
1899 Hoffenheim30%
Union Berlin44%
Draw27%
1899 Hoffenheim29%
Union Berlin44%
Draw26%
1899 Hoffenheim30%
Union Berlin36%
Draw27%
1899 Hoffenheim37%
Union Berlin44%
Draw27%
1899 Hoffenheim29%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Welz
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 38
Team strength
Union Berlin
1899 Hoffenheim
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
42
AttackIn forecast
46
42
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union Berlin1899 Hoffenheim
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
0.73
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.77
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.00
ShotsContext
13.00
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
28%
On target shareContext
35%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
73%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.50
Shots allowedContext
8.00
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
2.50
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
67%
Save rateContext
63%
30%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
277
PassesContext
428
202
Accurate passesContext
352
73%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.00
FoulsContext
15.50
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.60
ShotsContext
13.30
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
35%
On target shareContext
37%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
72%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.22
13.10
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.00
BlocksContext
3.30
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
62%
Save rateContext
59%
34%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
300
PassesContext
401
221
Accurate passesContext
323
74%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.80
FoulsContext
13.10
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km844 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel483 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
1899 Hoffenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 483 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 844 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
24R. Skov
19J. Haberer
8R. Khedira
28C. Trimmel
10Ilyas Ansah
7O. Burke
23A. Ilić
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
21A. Hajdari
2R. Hranáč
34V. Coufal
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
29B. Toure
27A. Kramarić
19T. Lemperle
11F. Asllani
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1899 Hoffenheim
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
1899 Hoffenheim · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Union Berlin wins1 draws2 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.38
Over 2.575%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets25% · 13%
- 8 Feb 20251899 Hoffenheim0–4Union Berlin
- 21 Sep 2024Union Berlin2–11899 Hoffenheim
- 17 Feb 20241899 Hoffenheim0–1Union Berlin
- 23 Sep 2023Union Berlin0–21899 Hoffenheim
- 20 May 20231899 Hoffenheim4–2Union Berlin
- 21 Jan 2023Union Berlin3–11899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Union Berlin | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.50 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 9.50 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.50 | 5.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Union Berlin | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.44 | 8.50 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.30 | 5.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Welz Germany · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.05league 4.89
Red cards0.16league 0.37
Cards 5+37%league 58%
Fouls23.1league 23.1
Penalties0.24league 0.42
Home wins50%league 42%
Union Berlin1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.6.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L6 Dec 24A · VfB Stuttgart2–36
1899 Hoffenheim3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D27 Jan 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim1–14
- W27 Aug 22H · FC Augsburg1–01
- W20 Nov 21H · RB Leipzig2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin2 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim2 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 17 · conceded 24
2
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
5
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
