Union Berlin
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Union Berlin43.7%fair odds 2.29
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.79
1899 Hoffenheim29.9%fair odds 3.35
Expected goals1.54 – 1.23total 2.77
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
1899 Hoffenheim
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Union Berlin ↓ · 1899 Hoffenheim → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union Berlin goals, columns 1899 Hoffenheim goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%7.99
- 2–19.1%10.96
- 1–09.0%11.08
- 2–07.4%13.48
- 1–27.3%13.67
- 0–17.1%14.07
- 0–06.9%14.45
- 2–25.6%17.81
- 0–24.8%21.00
- 3–14.7%21.40
Winning margin
8.9%
Union Berlin by 3+
fair 11.28
13.3%
Union Berlin by 2
fair 7.50
21.5%
Union Berlin by 1
fair 4.65
26.4%
Draw
fair 3.79
17.1%
1899 Hoffenheim by 1
fair 5.84
8.6%
1899 Hoffenheim by 2
fair 11.67
4.2%
1899 Hoffenheim by 3+
fair 23.88
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Union Berlin goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
1899 Hoffenheim goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin win | 43.7% | 44.3% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.7% | -0.3 pp |
| 1899 Hoffenheim win | 29.9% | 29.0% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 50.7% | +1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.2% | 54.9% | +1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Union Berlin | 1.54 | 1.52 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.23 | 1.18 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Union Berlin win43.7%2.29
- Draw26.4%3.79
- 1899 Hoffenheim win29.9%3.35
- Double chance Union Berlin or draw70.1%1.43
- Double chance Union Berlin or 1899 Hoffenheim73.6%1.36
- Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw56.3%1.78
- Draw no bet Union Berlin59.4%1.68
- Draw no bet 1899 Hoffenheim40.6%2.46
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.576.9%1.30
- Over 2.552.2%1.91
- Over 3.530.1%3.33
- Over 4.514.7%6.80
- Under 1.523.1%4.34
- Under 2.547.8%2.09
- Under 3.569.9%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes56.2%1.78
- No43.8%2.28
- Yes and over 2.543.7%2.29
- Union Berlin win and yes21.4%4.66
- Draw and yes19.5%5.14
- 1899 Hoffenheim win and yes15.3%6.55
Team goals
- Union Berlin over 0.578.5%1.27
- Union Berlin over 1.545.4%2.20
- Union Berlin over 2.520.0%5.00
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 0.570.8%1.41
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.534.8%2.87
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 2.512.7%7.86
- Union Berlin clean sheet29.2%3.42
- 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet21.5%4.64
- Union Berlin win to nil22.3%4.49
- 1899 Hoffenheim win to nil14.6%6.84
Handicap
- Union Berlin −1.522.2%4.50
- Union Berlin −2.58.9%11.28
- 1899 Hoffenheim +1.577.8%1.29
- 1899 Hoffenheim +2.591.1%1.10
- 1899 Hoffenheim −1.512.8%7.84
- Union Berlin +1.587.2%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored19
Favourite won47.4%
Avg chance given to result39.9%
1X2 Brier0.623
Over 2.5 called right68.4%
BTTS called right63.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.4% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 5 | 45.6% | 20.0% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 54.5% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 66.4% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 1 of 19 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.3117 | 0.5055 |
| Avg chance given to result | 54.4% | 42.1% |
| Favourite won | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 1 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗1.FC Köln 4–1 SC Freiburg36·26·38
- ✓Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Union Berlin69·19·12
- ✗VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 FSV Mainz 0540·26·34
- ✓FC Augsburg 2–3 Bayern München14·19·66
- ✓RB Leipzig 2–0 1. FC Heidenheim64·21·15
- ✓VfB Stuttgart 1–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach56·23·21
- ✓1899 Hoffenheim 1–3 Eintracht Frankfurt29·26·46
- ✗Werder Bremen 3–3 Bayer Leverkusen26·24·50
- ✗Hamburger SV 0–2 FC St. Pauli48·25·26
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 19 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.