Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union Berlin
13th · 7 pts · 6 played
LLWDL
3–1Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
17th · 3 pts · 6 played
LLDLD
Our take
Union Berlin were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Borussia Mönchengladbach usually keep the ball (48% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Union Berlin had 13.2 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 12 and had to travel 501 km.
Away travel501 kmRest days13.2 · 12Matches / 14d1 · 1
Union Berlin44%
Draw26%
Borussia Mönchengladbach29%
Union Berlin45%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach28%
Union Berlin44%
Draw26%
Borussia Mönchengladbach29%
Union Berlin37%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach36%
Union Berlin45%
Draw27%
Borussia Mönchengladbach28%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Reichel
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 45
Team strength
Union BerlinBorussia Mönchengladbach
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
42
AttackIn forecast
34
41
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union BerlinBorussia Mönchengladbach
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
2.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.36
50%
Scored inContext
33%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.67
ShotsContext
13.83
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
31%
On target shareContext
39%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.17
73%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
2.20
OffsidesContext
3.00
15.67
Shots allowedContext
13.00
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.17
4.60
BlocksContext
3.17
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
67%
Save rateContext
55%
31%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
267
PassesContext
452
188
Accurate passesContext
384
70%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.33
FoulsContext
12.83
12.83
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
60%
Scored inContext
40%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.50
ShotsContext
14.10
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
32%
On target shareContext
39%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
74%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.14
14.40
Shots allowedContext
16.40
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
3.56
BlocksContext
4.40
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
63%
Save rateContext
61%
35%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
302
PassesContext
438
222
Accurate passesContext
371
74%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.60
FoulsContext
10.80
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
7.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km944 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest12 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel501 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 12Bundesliga 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 501 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 944 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
39D. Köhn
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
28C. Trimmel
10Ilyas Ansah
21T. Skarke
23A. Ilić
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
4K. Diks
5M. Friedrich
30N. Elvedi
29J. Scally
17J. Castrop
6Y. Engelhardt
16P. Sander
27R. Reitz
10F. Neuhaus
15H. Tabaković
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Union Berlin | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 4–3 A | L 4–6 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game | 2 of 12 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Union Berlin wins1 draws2 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
Goals per game1.38 – 0.88
Over 2.563%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 15 Feb 2025Union Berlin1–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 28 Sep 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach1–0Union Berlin
- 28 Apr 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0Union Berlin
- 9 Dec 2023Union Berlin3–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 23 Apr 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach0–1Union Berlin
- 30 Oct 2022Union Berlin2–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.83 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Union Berlin | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.83 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 11.40 | 10.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.83 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Union Berlin | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 6.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 12.34 | 10.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 2.80 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Reichel Germany · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.82league 4.19
Red cards0.11league 0.26
Cards 5+38%league 43%
Fouls25.3league 22.7
Penalties0.29league 0.43
Home wins40%league 41%
Union Berlin6 with this referee
Record2-3-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L2 Mar 25H · Holstein Kiel0–14
- D8 Nov 24H · SC Freiburg0–02
- W5 Oct 24H · Borussia Dortmund2–14
- D19 Feb 23H · FC Schalke 040–02
- W18 Dec 21A · VfL Bochum1–00
Borussia Mönchengladbach4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W2 Dec 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–12
- D17 Mar 23H · Werder Bremen2–21
- D26 Feb 22H · VfL Wolfsburg2–22
- W31 Oct 21H · VfL Bochum2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin6 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
61-75
5
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach6 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 13 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
6
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 12 · conceded 23
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
6
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
