Union Berlin
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Union Berlin
13th · 7 pts · 6 played
LLWDL
3–1Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
17th · 3 pts · 6 played
LLDLD
Union Berlin44.3%fair odds 2.26
Draw26.5%fair odds 3.78
Borussia Mönchengladbach29.3%fair odds 3.42
Expected goals1.53 – 1.21total 2.74
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Union Berlin ↓ · Borussia Mönchengladbach → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union Berlin goals, columns Borussia Mönchengladbach goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.95
- 1–09.3%10.78
- 2–19.2%10.91
- 2–07.6%13.16
- 1–27.2%13.89
- 0–17.2%13.98
- 0–07.1%14.10
- 2–25.5%18.10
- 0–24.7%21.31
- 3–14.7%21.34
Winning margin
9.0%
Union Berlin by 3+
fair 11.11
13.5%
Union Berlin by 2
fair 7.40
21.7%
Union Berlin by 1
fair 4.60
26.5%
Draw
fair 3.78
16.9%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 1
fair 5.90
8.3%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 2
fair 11.98
4.0%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 3+
fair 25.13
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Union Berlin goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin win | 44.3% | 45.1% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 26.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 29.3% | 28.3% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.6% | 50.6% | +1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.6% | 54.6% | +0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Union Berlin | 1.53 | 1.53 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.21 | 1.17 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Union Berlin win44.3%2.26
- Draw26.5%3.78
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win29.3%3.42
- Double chance Union Berlin or draw70.7%1.41
- Double chance Union Berlin or Borussia Mönchengladbach73.5%1.36
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw55.7%1.79
- Draw no bet Union Berlin60.2%1.66
- Draw no bet Borussia Mönchengladbach39.8%2.51
Goals
- Over 0.592.9%1.08
- Over 1.576.5%1.31
- Over 2.551.6%1.94
- Over 3.529.5%3.39
- Over 4.514.3%6.99
- Under 1.523.5%4.25
- Under 2.548.4%2.07
- Under 3.570.5%1.42
Both teams to score
- Yes55.6%1.80
- No44.4%2.25
- Yes and over 2.543.0%2.33
- Union Berlin win and yes21.4%4.67
- Draw and yes19.4%5.16
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win and yes14.8%6.76
Team goals
- Union Berlin over 0.578.4%1.27
- Union Berlin over 1.545.4%2.20
- Union Berlin over 2.520.0%5.01
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 0.570.0%1.43
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.533.9%2.95
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 2.512.2%8.21
- Union Berlin clean sheet30.0%3.34
- Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet21.6%4.64
- Union Berlin win to nil22.9%4.37
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win to nil14.5%6.91
Handicap
- Union Berlin −1.522.5%4.44
- Union Berlin −2.59.0%11.11
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.577.5%1.29
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +2.591.0%1.10
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −1.512.3%8.11
- Union Berlin +1.587.7%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored54
Favourite won51.9%
Avg chance given to result42.6%
1X2 Brier0.570
Over 2.5 called right61.1%
BTTS called right55.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 9 | 38.2% | 44.4% |
| 40–50% | 15 | 45.2% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 13 | 54.5% | 46.2% |
| 60–70% | 12 | 66.4% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.8% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 36 of 54 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5351 | 0.5397 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.3% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 55.6% | 58.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 36 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 SC Freiburg34·26·40
- ✗Hamburger SV 4–0 FSV Mainz 0528·25·47
- ✓VfB Stuttgart 1–0 1. FC Heidenheim67·20·14
- ✓Eintracht Frankfurt 0–3 Bayern München24·23·53
- ✓FC Augsburg 3–1 VfL Wolfsburg39·26·34
- ✓Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 Union Berlin70·19·12
- ✗Borussia Dortmund 1–1 RB Leipzig59·22·19
- ✓Werder Bremen 1–0 FC St. Pauli58·22·19
- ✗1899 Hoffenheim 0–1 1.FC Köln48·25·27
- ✗Union Berlin 0–0 Hamburger SV51·25·24
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 54 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.