Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 40). Absences weigh more on RB Leipzig. Union Berlin had 6.2 days of rest, RB Leipzig 6.1 and had to travel 150 km.
Away travel150 kmRest days6.2 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Union Berlin27%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig48%
Union Berlin25%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig49%
Union Berlin25%
Draw25%
RB Leipzig50%
Union Berlin21%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig55%
Union Berlin27%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig46%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 84
Team strength
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
42
AttackIn forecast
76
41
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union BerlinRB Leipzig
1.23
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.15
1.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
62%
Scored inContext
85%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
54%
12.00
ShotsContext
16.00
3.54
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.69
30%
On target shareContext
36%
8.69
Shots in the boxContext
10.62
73%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.92
OffsidesContext
2.22
12.85
Shots allowedContext
12.77
4.46
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.31
3.92
BlocksContext
4.31
3.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
69%
Save rateContext
73%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
300
PassesContext
464
216
Accurate passesContext
392
72%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.05
12.85
FoulsContext
9.31
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.85
2.46
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
2.04
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.80
ShotsContext
16.00
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
29%
On target shareContext
41%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
73%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.57
12.70
Shots allowedContext
12.90
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
3.90
BlocksContext
4.60
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
74%
Save rateContext
82%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
303
PassesContext
477
217
Accurate passesContext
407
72%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.08
12.60
FoulsContext
9.00
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km357 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RB Leipzig
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel150 km826 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 6.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 150 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 357 km | 826 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
39D. Köhn
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
19J. Haberer
10Ilyas Ansah
11W. Jeong
7O. Burke
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
19K. Nedeljković
24X. Schlager
13N. Seiwald
14C. Baumgartner
49Y. Diomande
11C. Harder
9S. Bakayoko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin+1.8 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- RB Leipzig-2.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
1.29points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-2
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.43
RB Leipzig · Away
1.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.43
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Union Berlin | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | D 2–2 H | L 0–6 A |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 4–3 A | W 6–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 2–4 H | L 1–3 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 11 of 30 · 1.10 per game | 20 of 30 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Union Berlin wins2 draws2 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.13
Over 2.563%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 1 Feb 2025Union Berlin0–0RB Leipzig
- 14 Sep 2024RB Leipzig0–0Union Berlin
- 4 Feb 2024RB Leipzig2–0Union Berlin
- 3 Sep 2023Union Berlin0–3RB Leipzig
- 11 Feb 2023RB Leipzig1–2Union Berlin
- 20 Aug 2022Union Berlin2–1RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.23 | 2.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.69 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.92 | 3.15 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 54% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 46% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 38% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 54% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 15% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Union Berlin | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 6.08 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 10.83 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 9/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 7/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 3/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.62 | 1.62 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.31 | 2.08 | |
| Match total | 4.93 | 3.70 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 10/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 62% 8/13 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Union Berlin | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 6.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 11.67 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 3.50 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 84 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.23league 3.94
Red cards0.25league 0.21
Cards 5+50%league 42%
Fouls22.7league 21.4
Penalties0.27league 0.33
Home wins56%league 46%
Union Berlin11 with this referee
Record3-2-6
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L24 Oct 25A · Werder Bremen0–10
- L31 Aug 25A · Borussia Dortmund0–30
- D1 Feb 25H · RB Leipzig0–03
- L28 Sep 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–11
- W16 Mar 24H · Werder Bremen2–13
RB Leipzig7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.9
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- D1 Feb 25A · Union Berlin0–02
- W3 Sep 23A · Union Berlin3–01
- L23 Apr 23A · Bayer Leverkusen0–25
- L11 Feb 23H · Union Berlin1–24
- L23 Apr 22H · Union Berlin1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin13 games · scored 16 · conceded 22
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
7
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
8
76-90
RB Leipzig13 games · scored 28 · conceded 13
6
0-15
2
4
16-30
7
3
31-45
6
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 25 · conceded 7
6
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
