Union Berlin
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Union Berlin26.7%fair odds 3.75
Draw25.7%fair odds 3.90
RB Leipzig47.7%fair odds 2.10
Expected goals1.17 – 1.64total 2.82
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
RB Leipzig
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Union Berlin ↓ · RB Leipzig → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union Berlin goals, columns RB Leipzig goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.23
- 1–29.5%10.56
- 0–19.2%10.84
- 0–28.1%12.39
- 2–16.8%14.77
- 0–06.6%15.15
- 1–06.4%15.58
- 2–25.6%17.99
- 1–35.2%19.30
- 0–34.4%22.64
Winning margin
3.4%
Union Berlin by 3+
fair 29.15
7.5%
Union Berlin by 2
fair 13.33
15.7%
Union Berlin by 1
fair 6.35
25.7%
Draw
fair 3.90
22.3%
RB Leipzig by 1
fair 4.49
14.7%
RB Leipzig by 2
fair 6.81
10.7%
RB Leipzig by 3+
fair 9.33
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Union Berlin goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
RB Leipzig goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin win | 26.7% | 27.3% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.5% | -0.8 pp |
| RB Leipzig win | 47.7% | 46.3% | +1.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 50.6% | +2.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.3% | 54.4% | +2.0 pp |
| Expected goals Union Berlin | 1.17 | 1.14 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals RB Leipzig | 1.64 | 1.56 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Union Berlin win26.7%3.75
- Draw25.7%3.90
- RB Leipzig win47.7%2.10
- Double chance Union Berlin or draw52.3%1.91
- Double chance Union Berlin or RB Leipzig74.3%1.35
- Double chance RB Leipzig or draw73.3%1.36
- Draw no bet Union Berlin35.9%2.79
- Draw no bet RB Leipzig64.1%1.56
Goals
- Over 0.593.4%1.07
- Over 1.577.8%1.29
- Over 2.553.4%1.87
- Over 3.531.1%3.21
- Over 4.515.5%6.47
- Under 1.522.2%4.50
- Under 2.546.6%2.15
- Under 3.568.9%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes56.3%1.78
- No43.7%2.29
- Yes and over 2.544.2%2.26
- Union Berlin win and yes13.9%7.19
- Draw and yes19.1%5.25
- RB Leipzig win and yes23.3%4.28
Team goals
- Union Berlin over 0.569.1%1.45
- Union Berlin over 1.532.8%3.05
- Union Berlin over 2.511.5%8.71
- RB Leipzig over 0.580.6%1.24
- RB Leipzig over 1.548.8%2.05
- RB Leipzig over 2.522.7%4.40
- Union Berlin clean sheet19.4%5.16
- RB Leipzig clean sheet30.9%3.23
- Union Berlin win to nil12.8%7.83
- RB Leipzig win to nil24.3%4.11
Handicap
- Union Berlin −1.510.9%9.15
- Union Berlin −2.53.4%29.15
- RB Leipzig +1.589.1%1.12
- RB Leipzig +2.596.6%1.04
- RB Leipzig −1.525.4%3.94
- Union Berlin +1.574.6%1.34
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored117
Favourite won56.4%
Avg chance given to result43.4%
1X2 Brier0.552
Over 2.5 called right62.4%
BTTS called right56.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 15 | 38.1% | 46.7% |
| 40–50% | 37 | 45.1% | 43.2% |
| 50–60% | 31 | 54.6% | 54.8% |
| 60–70% | 22 | 65.2% | 77.3% |
| 70–80% | 10 | 74.5% | 70.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 90.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 98 of 117 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5346 | 0.5358 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.2% | 43.6% |
| Favourite won | 59.2% | 59.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 98 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 117 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.