Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 42). SC Freiburg usually keep the ball (47% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Union Berlin had 7.8 days of rest, SC Freiburg 6 and had to travel 640 km.
Away travel640 kmRest days7.8 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 3
Union Berlin35%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg38%
Union Berlin36%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg37%
Union Berlin35%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg38%
Union Berlin28%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg45%
Union Berlin36%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg37%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySören Storks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 22
Team strength
Union Berlin
SC Freiburg
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
42
AttackIn forecast
63
41
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union BerlinSC Freiburg
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
50%
Scored inContext
75%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.00
ShotsContext
11.38
3.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
30%
On target shareContext
31%
8.38
Shots in the boxContext
8.29
70%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.67
14.88
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
4.71
BlocksContext
3.63
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
66%
Save rateContext
62%
33%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
279
PassesContext
394
198
Accurate passesContext
316
71%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.50
FoulsContext
9.00
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.88
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
50%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.90
ShotsContext
11.60
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
30%
On target shareContext
36%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
71%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.60
Shots allowedContext
11.70
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.22
BlocksContext
3.70
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
64%
Save rateContext
68%
35%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
302
PassesContext
390
221
Accurate passesContext
313
73%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.70
FoulsContext
9.60
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km631 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Freiburg
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel640 km686 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Oct | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 640 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 631 km | 686 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
39D. Köhn
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
19J. Haberer
13A. Schäfer
21T. Skarke
23A. Ilić
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
33J. Makengo
37M. Rosenfelder
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
9L. Höler
19J. Beste
20C. Adamu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- SC Freiburg-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
SC Freiburg · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Union Berlin | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 4–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 2–4 H | D 1–1 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 2–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 9 of 18 · 1.50 per game | 9 of 18 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Union Berlin wins3 draws1 SC Freiburg wins
Goals per game1.63 – 1.13
Over 2.563%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets38% · 38%
- 30 Mar 2025SC Freiburg1–2Union Berlin
- 8 Nov 2024Union Berlin0–0SC Freiburg
- 18 May 2024Union Berlin2–1SC Freiburg
- 13 Jan 2024SC Freiburg0–0Union Berlin
- 13 May 2023Union Berlin4–2SC Freiburg
- 13 Nov 2022SC Freiburg4–1Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.88 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 63% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 63% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Union Berlin | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.88 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.70 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 8.16 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 2.63 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 4.76 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Union Berlin | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.13 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.80 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sören Storks Germany · 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.32league 4.23
Red cards0.14league 0.22
Cards 5+55%league 44%
Fouls21.0league 22.6
Penalties0.27league 0.40
Home wins41%league 42%
Union Berlin3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D3 May 25H · Werder Bremen2–21
- W30 Mar 25A · SC Freiburg2–14
- L26 Jan 25A · FC St. Pauli0–33
SC Freiburg3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 Mar 25H · Union Berlin1–23
- W11 Jan 25H · Holstein Kiel3–22
- D4 May 24A · 1.FC Köln0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin8 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
SC Freiburg8 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
