Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union Berlin
11th · 32 pts · 29 played
LWLDL
1–2Full time
VfL Wolfsburg
17th · 21 pts · 29 played
LDLLL
Our take
Union Berlin were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on VfL Wolfsburg. Union Berlin had 7 days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg 7 and had to travel 178 km.
Away travel178 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Union Berlin49%
Draw24%
VfL Wolfsburg26%
Union Berlin47%
Draw26%
VfL Wolfsburg27%
Union Berlin48%
Draw25%
VfL Wolfsburg27%
Union Berlin42%
Draw25%
VfL Wolfsburg33%
Union Berlin49%
Draw25%
VfL Wolfsburg26%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 71
Team strength
Union BerlinVfL Wolfsburg
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
42
AttackIn forecast
50
41
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union BerlinVfL Wolfsburg
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.34
1.72
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.24
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.81
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
72%
Scored inContext
79%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
3%
11.69
ShotsContext
11.31
3.48
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
30%
On target shareContext
34%
8.89
Shots in the boxContext
7.03
72%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.72
12.69
Shots allowedContext
14.90
4.28
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.59
3.92
BlocksContext
4.21
3.04
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.57
66%
Save rateContext
63%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
315
PassesContext
400
226
Accurate passesContext
318
72%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.28
FoulsContext
11.17
9.55
Fouls sufferedContext
8.93
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
1.97
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.84
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.40
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
35%
On target shareContext
30%
7.63
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
67%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.43
13.80
Shots allowedContext
16.20
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
4.38
BlocksContext
5.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
65%
Save rateContext
65%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
298
PassesContext
375
206
Accurate passesContext
292
69%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.80
FoulsContext
12.60
8.10
Fouls sufferedContext
7.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km971 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel178 km608 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
VfL Wolfsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 178 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 971 km | 608 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
4Diogo Leite
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
15T. Rothe
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
28C. Trimmel
10Ilyas Ansah
23A. Ilić
7O. Burke
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
4K. Koulierakis
3D. Vavro
6J. Belocian
25A. Zehnter
5Vinicius Souza
24C. Eriksen
21J. Mæhle
9M. Amoura
39P. Wimmer
17D. Pejčinović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfL Wolfsburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- VfL Wolfsburg-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
1.29points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-4
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.57
VfL Wolfsburg · Away
0.86points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-8
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 2.43
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Union Berlin | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–4 AD 2–2 H | L 1–8 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | L 3–4 H |
| Werder Bremen | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | L 3–6 AL 1–3 H |
| Hamburger SV | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 AL 2–4 H | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | L 0–4 AL 0–3 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 HL 1–3 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 H | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 32 of 84 · 1.14 per game | 18 of 84 · 0.64 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Union Berlin wins1 draws4 VfL Wolfsburg wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.89
Over 2.522%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets44% · 22%
- 6 Dec 2025VfL Wolfsburg3–1Union Berlin
- 6 Apr 2025Union Berlin1–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 23 Nov 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–0Union Berlin
- 10 Feb 2024Union Berlin1–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 16 Sep 2023VfL Wolfsburg2–1Union Berlin
- 12 Mar 2023VfL Wolfsburg1–1Union Berlin
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.34 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.72 | 2.24 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 3.59 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 69% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 76% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 3% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 21% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Union Berlin | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.50 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.46 | 3.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.46 | 7.43 | |
| Match total | 8.92 | 11.39 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 18/28 | 75% 21/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 11/28 | 64% 18/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 6/28 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 2.03 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.55 | |
| Match total | 4.31 | 3.58 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 17/29 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 13/29 | 34% 10/29 | |
| Union Berlin | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 7.50 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 11.80 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.40 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 71 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.44league 3.75
Red cards0.17league 0.18
Cards 5+31%league 38%
Fouls22.1league 20.4
Penalties0.27league 0.37
Home wins48%league 44%
Union Berlin9 with this referee
Record3-3-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L14 Feb 26A · Hamburger SV2–30
- D15 Jan 26A · FC Augsburg1–11
- L10 May 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim0–32
- D25 Nov 23H · FC Augsburg1–12
- L6 May 23A · FC Augsburg0–12
VfL Wolfsburg5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- L18 Oct 25H · VfB Stuttgart0–31
- W14 Jan 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach5–11
- D4 Feb 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–22
- W19 Aug 23H · 1. FC Heidenheim2–03
- L4 Dec 21A · FSV Mainz 050–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin29 games · scored 33 · conceded 50
2
3
0-15
6
3
16-30
4
17
31-45
5
9
46-60
5
4
61-75
11
14
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg29 games · scored 39 · conceded 65
8
6
0-15
7
10
16-30
5
10
31-45
6
9
46-60
7
12
61-75
6
18
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 9 · conceded 20
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
9
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 11 · conceded 24
0-15
2
5
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
