Union St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union St. Gilloise
1st · 46 pts · 22 played
DWDWD
First leg0–1
1–0Full time
Club Brugge KV
3rd · 44 pts · 22 played
WWWLW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 58). Union St. Gilloise had 7.9 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 8 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Union St. Gilloise38%
Draw27%
Club Brugge KV35%
Union St. Gilloise39%
Draw27%
Club Brugge KV34%
Union St. Gilloise38%
Draw27%
Club Brugge KV35%
Union St. Gilloise31%
Draw27%
Club Brugge KV42%
Union St. Gilloise39%
Draw27%
Club Brugge KV34%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 36
Team strength
Union St. GilloiseClub Brugge KV
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
62
AttackIn forecast
86
74
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisClub Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union St. GilloiseClub Brugge KV
1.68
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.91
0.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
0.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
82%
Scored inContext
86%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
14.73
ShotsContext
15.86
5.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.27
37%
On target shareContext
33%
11.63
Shots in the boxContext
11.09
74%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.07
8.59
Shots allowedContext
11.59
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.91
2.62
BlocksContext
2.64
2.65
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.05
79%
Save rateContext
73%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
428
PassesContext
556
347
Accurate passesContext
485
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.02
Team ratingContext
7.04
12.50
FoulsContext
9.23
9.32
Fouls sufferedContext
11.55
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
1.32
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.90
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.00
ShotsContext
16.10
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
36%
On target shareContext
39%
8.13
Shots in the boxContext
11.70
66%
Box shareContext
73%
8%
ConversionContext
17%
4.00
OffsidesContext
1.86
9.30
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.33
BlocksContext
2.30
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
70%
Save rateContext
63%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
411
PassesContext
528
328
Accurate passesContext
457
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.04
11.20
FoulsContext
9.80
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union St. Gilloise
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km49 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Club Brugge KV
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union St. Gilloise |
Club Brugge KV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 49 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
26R. Sykes
16C. Burgess
5K. Mac Allister
27L. Patris
17R. Schoofs
8A. Zorgane
25A. Khalaili
11G. da Silva Carvalho
10A. Ait El Hadj
12P. David
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
22S. Mignolet(G)
65J. Seys
44B. Mechele
58J. Spileers
64K. Sabbe
15R. Onyedika
25A. Stanković
20H. Vanaken
67M. Diakhon
8C. Tzolis
9Carlos Forbs
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Union St. Gilloise · Home
2.80points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-1-0
- Scored
- 2.30
- Conceded
- 0.20
Club Brugge KV · Away
1.73points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-4
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 1.18
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Union St. Gilloise | Club Brugge KV |
|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven | D 0–0 AW 5–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| KV Mechelen | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | W 4–3 HW 1–0 A |
| Charleroi | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Gent | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| St. Truiden | W 2–0 H | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 H | D 5–5 H |
| Genk | W 2–1 A | W 5–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Dender | W 1–0 A | W 5–1 AW 2–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 A | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Standard Liege | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 46 of 63 · 2.19 per game | 41 of 63 · 1.95 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Union St. Gilloise wins1 draws1 Club Brugge KV wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 5 Oct 2025Club Brugge KV1–0Union St. Gilloise
- 26 Dec 2023Club Brugge KV1–1Union St. Gilloise
- 5 Nov 2023Union St. Gilloise2–1Club Brugge KV
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union St. Gilloise | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.68 | 1.91 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.55 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 2.23 | 3.18 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 27% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 55% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 14% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Union St. Gilloise | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 4.00 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 10% | 70% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union St. Gilloise | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.45 | 6.26 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.85 | 4.95 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 11.21 | 9.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 11/20 | 84% 16/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 10/20 | 79% 15/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 8/20 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.23 | 1.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.23 | 2.41 | |
| Match total | 4.46 | 3.82 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 14/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 14/22 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Union St. Gilloise | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.57 | 6.14 | |
| Match total | 7.43 | 10.85 | 9.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.10 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 3.82
Red cards0.22league 0.19
Cards 5+50%league 40%
Fouls22.4league 22.9
Penalties0.11league 0.27
Home wins47%league 40%
Union St. Gilloise5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Dec 25H · Zulte Waregem2–01
- L30 Nov 25A · Anderlecht0–13
- W21 Sep 25A · Genk2–14
- D24 Aug 25A · RAAL La Louvière0–03
- W18 Feb 24A · Kortrijk3–11
Club Brugge KV1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W26 Nov 23A · OH Leuven1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union St. Gilloise22 games · scored 37 · conceded 12
4
2
0-15
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
8
61-75
10
5
76-90
Club Brugge KV22 games · scored 42 · conceded 28
4
5
0-15
7
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
8
3
46-60
7
3
61-75
12
9
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 27 · conceded 19
4
0-15
5
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
7
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
