Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Feb 1 · 17:30 Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
Union St. Gilloise 1st · 46 pts · 22 played
First leg0–1 1–0Full time
Club Brugge KV 3rd · 44 pts · 22 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Union St. Gilloise38.0%fair odds 2.63
Draw26.9%fair odds 3.72
Club Brugge KV35.1%fair odds 2.85
Expected goals1.40 – 1.34total 2.73
Likeliest score1–112.8%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Union St. Gilloise

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Club Brugge KV

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Union St. Gilloise ↓ · Club Brugge KV →0123456+
07.18.05.82.60.90.20.1
18.412.88.13.61.20.30.1
26.48.55.72.50.80.20.1
33.04.02.61.20.40.10.0
41.01.40.90.40.10.00.0
50.30.40.30.10.00.00.0
6+0.10.10.10.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union St. Gilloise goals, columns Club Brugge KV goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–112.8%7.83
  • 2–18.5%11.79
  • 1–08.4%11.85
  • 1–28.1%12.34
  • 0–18.0%12.46
  • 0–07.1%14.02
  • 2–06.4%15.75
  • 0–25.8%17.27
  • 2–25.7%17.65
  • 3–14.0%25.28

Winning margin

6.6% Union St. Gilloise by 3+ fair 15.10
11.4% Union St. Gilloise by 2 fair 8.81
20.0% Union St. Gilloise by 1 fair 5.00
26.9% Draw fair 3.72
19.1% Club Brugge KV by 1 fair 5.24
10.4% Club Brugge KV by 2 fair 9.66
5.7% Club Brugge KV by 3+ fair 17.65

Goal distribution

Total goals

7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+

Union St. Gilloise goals

25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+

Club Brugge KV goals

26%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Union St. Gilloise win 38.0% 38.6% -0.6 pp
Draw 26.9% 27.0% -0.1 pp
Club Brugge KV win 35.1% 34.5% +0.7 pp
Over 2.5 51.5% 51.1% +0.4 pp
Both teams score 56.2% 55.8% +0.3 pp
Expected goals Union St. Gilloise 1.40 1.40 -0.00
Expected goals Club Brugge KV 1.34 1.31 +0.02

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Union St. Gilloise win38.0%2.63
  • Draw26.9%3.72
  • Club Brugge KV win35.1%2.85
  • Double chance Union St. Gilloise or draw64.9%1.54
  • Double chance Union St. Gilloise or Club Brugge KV73.1%1.37
  • Double chance Club Brugge KV or draw62.0%1.61
  • Draw no bet Union St. Gilloise52.0%1.92
  • Draw no bet Club Brugge KV48.0%2.08

Goals

  • Over 0.592.9%1.08
  • Over 1.576.4%1.31
  • Over 2.551.5%1.94
  • Over 3.529.4%3.41
  • Over 4.514.2%7.03
  • Under 1.523.6%4.24
  • Under 2.548.5%2.06
  • Under 3.570.6%1.42

Both teams to score

  • Yes56.2%1.78
  • No43.8%2.28
  • Yes and over 2.543.4%2.31
  • Union St. Gilloise win and yes18.8%5.31
  • Draw and yes19.8%5.06
  • Club Brugge KV win and yes17.6%5.70

Team goals

  • Union St. Gilloise over 0.575.3%1.33
  • Union St. Gilloise over 1.540.8%2.45
  • Union St. Gilloise over 2.516.6%6.02
  • Club Brugge KV over 0.573.7%1.36
  • Club Brugge KV over 1.538.6%2.59
  • Club Brugge KV over 2.515.1%6.61
  • Union St. Gilloise clean sheet26.3%3.80
  • Club Brugge KV clean sheet24.7%4.05
  • Union St. Gilloise win to nil19.2%5.22
  • Club Brugge KV win to nil17.6%5.70

Handicap

  • Union St. Gilloise −1.518.0%5.56
  • Union St. Gilloise −2.56.6%15.10
  • Club Brugge KV +1.582.0%1.22
  • Club Brugge KV +2.593.4%1.07
  • Club Brugge KV −1.516.0%6.24
  • Union St. Gilloise +1.584.0%1.19

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored182 Favourite won42.9% Avg chance given to result37.0% 1X2 Brier0.639 Over 2.5 called right51.1% BTTS called right51.6%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3338.1%36.4%
40–50%8844.8%34.1%
50–60%4154.4%53.7%
60–70%1664.4%75.0%
70–80%473.5%50.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 144 of 182 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.64700.6411
Avg chance given to result36.7%37.5%
Favourite won41.7%41.0%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 144 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 182 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.