Union St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union St. Gilloise
1st · 42 pts · 20 played
LDDWD
First leg1–1
1–0Full time
KV Mechelen
5th · 31 pts · 20 played
LWWLD
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 33). Union St. Gilloise had 22.2 days of rest, KV Mechelen 21.1 and had to travel 21 km.
Away travel21 kmRest days22.2 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Union St. Gilloise58%
Draw23%
KV Mechelen18%
Union St. Gilloise58%
Draw23%
KV Mechelen18%
Union St. Gilloise58%
Draw23%
KV Mechelen18%
Union St. Gilloise51%
Draw26%
KV Mechelen24%
Union St. Gilloise58%
Draw23%
KV Mechelen18%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)
No weather data yet
RefereeBram Van Driessche
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 37
Team strength
Union St. GilloiseKV Mechelen
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
62
AttackIn forecast
18
74
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union St. GilloiseKV Mechelen
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
0.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
85%
Scored inContext
85%
45%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
14.90
ShotsContext
10.45
5.65
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.95
38%
On target shareContext
38%
12.06
Shots in the boxContext
7.32
76%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.60
Shots allowedContext
14.65
3.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.95
2.45
BlocksContext
4.37
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.26
77%
Save rateContext
88%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
434
PassesContext
395
354
Accurate passesContext
323
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.25
FoulsContext
9.80
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.35
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.80
ShotsContext
10.30
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
34%
On target shareContext
35%
10.88
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
73%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
3.71
OffsidesContext
2.50
8.90
Shots allowedContext
13.70
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.30
BlocksContext
3.89
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
62%
Save rateContext
84%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
420
PassesContext
416
340
Accurate passesContext
341
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.93
12.20
FoulsContext
10.20
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union St. Gilloise
Rest22.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KV Mechelen
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel21 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union St. Gilloise |
KV Mechelen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Dec | 21.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 21 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
3M. Barry
26R. Sykes
5K. Mac Allister
11G. da Silva Carvalho
8A. Zorgane
6K. Van de Perre
25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj
12P. David
30R. Florucz
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
18Ian Struyf
2R. Halhal
33T. St. Jago
17Mathis Servais
6F. Hammar
8M. Konaté
7T. Koudou
9M. van Brederode
20L. Lauberbach
10M. Kireev
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Union St. Gilloise · Home
2.78points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-0
- Scored
- 2.44
- Conceded
- 0.22
KV Mechelen · Away
1.70points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-3
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Union St. Gilloise | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | W 3–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Charleroi | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Gent | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| St. Truiden | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Genk | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Dender | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Standard Liege | W 3–0 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| OH Leuven | W 5–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 41 of 57 · 2.16 per game | 30 of 57 · 1.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Union St. Gilloise wins1 draws1 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 9 Nov 2025KV Mechelen1–1Union St. Gilloise
- 17 Dec 2023Union St. Gilloise1–0KV Mechelen
- 19 Aug 2023KV Mechelen4–0Union St. Gilloise
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union St. Gilloise | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.35 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 35% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 65% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 45% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 15% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Union St. Gilloise | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.30 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 30% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union St. Gilloise | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.26 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.84 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 10.90 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 10/19 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 9/19 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 7/19 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.15 | 2.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.35 | 3.95 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 12/20 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 12/20 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Union St. Gilloise | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 9.40 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.20 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bram Van Driessche 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.16league 3.80
Red cards0.27league 0.20
Cards 5+41%league 40%
Fouls22.0league 22.8
Penalties0.22league 0.29
Home wins49%league 40%
Union St. Gilloise6 with this referee
Record5-1-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W26 Oct 25H · St. Truiden2–01
- W16 Aug 25H · Standard Liege3–01
- D17 Mar 24A · Antwerp1–15
- W3 Dec 23H · Cercle Brugge2–11
- W24 Sep 23A · Cercle Brugge2–03
KV Mechelen5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Nov 25A · Genk1–05
- W28 Sep 25A · Charleroi2–04
- L24 Aug 25A · Antwerp1–23
- D11 Feb 24H · Genk1–11
- L12 Aug 23A · RWDM0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union St. Gilloise20 games · scored 36 · conceded 12
4
2
0-15
4
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
8
61-75
10
5
76-90
KV Mechelen20 games · scored 25 · conceded 22
5
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
5
61-75
5
9
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
