Union St. Gilloise
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Union St. Gilloise63.7%fair odds 1.57
Draw21.3%fair odds 4.69
OH Leuven14.9%fair odds 6.71
Expected goals2.05 – 0.89total 2.94
Likeliest score2–011.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
OH Leuven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Union St. Gilloise ↓ · OH Leuven → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union St. Gilloise goals, columns OH Leuven goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.1%9.01
- 1–010.3%9.70
- 1–110.2%9.85
- 2–19.9%10.11
- 3–07.6%13.18
- 3–16.8%14.79
- 0–05.8%17.29
- 2–24.4%22.70
- 1–24.3%23.29
- 0–14.2%23.88
Winning margin
20.4%
Union St. Gilloise by 3+
fair 4.89
19.6%
Union St. Gilloise by 2
fair 5.10
23.7%
Union St. Gilloise by 1
fair 4.22
21.3%
Draw
fair 4.69
10.0%
OH Leuven by 1
fair 9.99
3.7%
OH Leuven by 2
fair 27.04
1.2%
OH Leuven by 3+
fair 83.37
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
18%5+
Union St. Gilloise goals
13%0
26%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+
OH Leuven goals
41%0
37%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise win | 63.7% | 63.2% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 21.3% | 21.7% | -0.3 pp |
| OH Leuven win | 14.9% | 15.2% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 55.5% | +0.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.9% | 51.5% | +0.4 pp |
| Expected goals Union St. Gilloise | 2.05 | 2.02 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals OH Leuven | 0.89 | 0.89 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Union St. Gilloise win63.7%1.57
- Draw21.3%4.69
- OH Leuven win14.9%6.71
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or draw85.1%1.18
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or OH Leuven78.7%1.27
- Double chance OH Leuven or draw36.3%2.76
- Draw no bet Union St. Gilloise81.0%1.23
- Draw no bet OH Leuven19.0%5.28
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.579.7%1.25
- Over 2.556.4%1.77
- Over 3.534.0%2.94
- Over 4.517.5%5.71
- Under 1.520.3%4.93
- Under 2.543.6%2.29
- Under 3.566.0%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes51.9%1.93
- No48.1%2.08
- Yes and over 2.541.8%2.39
- Union St. Gilloise win and yes28.5%3.51
- Draw and yes15.6%6.43
- OH Leuven win and yes7.8%12.76
Team goals
- Union St. Gilloise over 0.587.1%1.15
- Union St. Gilloise over 1.560.8%1.65
- Union St. Gilloise over 2.533.7%2.97
- OH Leuven over 0.559.0%1.70
- OH Leuven over 1.522.4%4.46
- OH Leuven over 2.56.1%16.29
- Union St. Gilloise clean sheet41.0%2.44
- OH Leuven clean sheet12.9%7.78
- Union St. Gilloise win to nil35.2%2.84
- OH Leuven win to nil7.1%14.14
Handicap
- Union St. Gilloise −1.540.0%2.50
- Union St. Gilloise −2.520.4%4.89
- OH Leuven +1.560.0%1.67
- OH Leuven +2.579.6%1.26
- OH Leuven −1.54.9%20.42
- Union St. Gilloise +1.595.1%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored14
Favourite won35.7%
Avg chance given to result36.3%
1X2 Brier0.640
Over 2.5 called right57.1%
BTTS called right71.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 39.3% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 10 | 43.1% | 20.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 55.8% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 63.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 14 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 14 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.