Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Aug 3 · 17:30 Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
Union St. Gilloise 12th · 1 pts · 1 played
5–0Full time
OH Leuven 10th · 1 pts · 1 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Union St. Gilloise were clear favourites.

Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 22). Union St. Gilloise had 8.9 days of rest, OH Leuven 7.1 and had to travel 24 km.

Away travel24 kmRest days8.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Union St. Gilloise64%
Draw21%
OH Leuven15%
Expected goals 2.05 – 0.89
Union St. Gilloise63%
Draw22%
OH Leuven15%
Expected goals 2.02 – 0.89
Union St. Gilloise64%
Draw21%
OH Leuven15%
Expected goals 2.05 – 0.89
Union St. Gilloise56%
Draw24%
OH Leuven20%
Expected goals 1.83 – 1.00
Union St. Gilloise63%
Draw22%
OH Leuven15%
Expected goals 2.02 – 0.89
Over 2.5 56% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)

No weather data yet

RefereeJan Boterberg
  • Cards per match 2.8
  • Penalties per match 0.20
  • Matches 15

Team strength

Union St. GilloiseOH Leuven
51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22
70 Current StrengthIn forecast 18
62 AttackIn forecast 17
74 DefenceIn forecast 30
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

OH Leuven

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union St. GilloiseOH Leuven
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.93 xGVia Att/Def —
1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
-0.93 Goals minus xGContext —
70% Scored inContext 60%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
17.40 ShotsContext 9.80
6.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.11
37% On target shareContext 29%
12.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.70
71% Box shareContext 72%
6% ConversionContext 10%
2.30 OffsidesContext 2.63
10.60 Shots allowedContext 12.60
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56
3.30 BlocksContext 3.40
2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.13
70% Save rateContext 85%
52% PossessionIn forecast 46%
460 PassesContext 377
364 Accurate passesContext 283
79% Pass accuracyContext 75%
7.14 Team ratingContext 6.91
14.90 FoulsContext 13.60
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70
3.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union St. Gilloise
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km84 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
OH Leuven
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel24 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union St. Gilloise OH Leuven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 25 Jul7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Jul
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km24 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways84 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 10 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one6.17

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union St. Gilloise Confirmed XI
3-4-1-2
1V. Chambaere(G)
26R. Sykes 48F. Leysen 5K. Mac Allister
22O. Niang 8A. Zorgane 24C. Vanhoutte 25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj
13K. Rodríguez 30R. Florucz
OH Leuven Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1T. Leysen(G)
30T. Akimoto 5T. Ominami 28E. Pletinckx 27Óscar Gil
8S. Schrijvers 4B. Verstraete
7T. Verlinden 10Y. Maziz 21W. Balikwisha
22J. Mijatović

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union St. Gilloise Absences are shown before kick-off
OH Leuven Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • OH Leuven+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Union St. Gilloise · Home No home games yet this season.
OH Leuven · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Union St. Gilloise wins0 draws0 OH Leuven wins
Goals per game3.50 – 0.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 2 Mar 2024OH Leuven0–2Union St. Gilloise
  • 12 Aug 2023Union St. Gilloise5–1OH Leuven

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union St. GilloiseOH LeuvenForecast
Scored per game 1.002.00
Conceded per game 1.002.00
Match goals 2.004.00 2.94
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 0%100% 56%
Over 3.5 0%100%
Both teams scored 100%100% 52%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games11
Union St. GilloiseOH LeuvenForecast
Scored per game 1.002.00
Conceded per game 1.002.00
Match goals 2.004.00 2.94
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 0%100% 56%
Over 3.5 0%100%
Both teams scored 100%100% 52%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games11

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union St. GilloiseOH LeuvenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.004.00
Corners conceded2.008.00
Match total7.0012.008.71
Over 8.50% 0/1100% 1/1
Over 9.50% 0/1100% 1/1
Over 10.50% 0/1100% 1/1
Cards
Cards3.002.00
Opponent cards3.002.00
Match total6.004.003.64
Over 3.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 4.5100% 1/10% 0/1
Union St. GilloiseOH LeuvenLeague
Corners
Corners won5.895.60
Corners conceded3.336.80
Match total9.2212.408.71
Over 8.556% 5/990% 9/10
Over 9.544% 4/980% 8/10
Over 10.533% 3/970% 7/10
Cards
Cards3.702.40
Opponent cards3.002.20
Match total6.704.603.64
Over 3.590% 9/1070% 7/10
Over 4.580% 8/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jan Boterberg 15 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.60league 3.57
Red cards0.20league 0.07
Cards 5+13%league 29%
Fouls18.9league 23.4
Penalties0.20league 0.36
Home wins47%league 43%
Union St. Gilloise1 with this referee
Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 0
  • D3 Sep 23H · Antwerp2–21
OH Leuven3 with this referee
Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1
  • L10 Mar 24A · Club Brugge KV1–32
  • W3 Feb 24A · KVC Westerlo3–02
  • D9 Dec 23A · St. Truiden1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Union St. Gilloise1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
76-90
OH Leuven1 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
1 0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1 2 76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
1 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
3 1 76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
3 0-15
3 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
3 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
KV Mechelen Club Brugge KV 21 KVC Westerlo Zulte Waregem 31 Standard Liege Dender 11 Gent RAAL La Louvière 10 Genk Antwerp 11 Cercle Brugge Anderlecht 02 Union St. Gilloise OH Leuven 50 Charleroi St. Truiden 11