Utrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were slight favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 35). Absences weigh more on Utrecht. Utrecht had 4.1 days of rest, FC Porto 3.9 and had to travel 1,601 km.
Away travel1,601 kmRest days4.1 · 3.9Matches / 14d3 · 3
Utrecht21%
Draw24%
FC Porto55%
Utrecht22%
Draw25%
FC Porto53%
Utrecht22%
Draw24%
FC Porto53%
Utrecht16%
Draw22%
FC Porto62%
Utrecht22%
Draw25%
FC Porto54%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Utrecht)
No weather data yet
RefereeJohn Beaton
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 63
Team strength
Utrecht
FC Porto
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
73
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
32
AttackIn forecast
74
31
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
UtrechtFC Porto
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.85
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
0%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.67
ShotsContext
13.67
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
23%
On target shareContext
22%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
56%
Box shareContext
64%
0%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.33
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
4.00
BlocksContext
3.33
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.33
71%
Save rateContext
50%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
389
PassesContext
438
309
Accurate passesContext
366
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.33
FoulsContext
11.00
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.65
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
50%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.60
ShotsContext
13.30
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
29%
On target shareContext
34%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
63%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.13
12.50
Shots allowedContext
9.00
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
4.63
BlocksContext
3.20
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.56
67%
Save rateContext
74%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
415
PassesContext
423
333
Accurate passesContext
354
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.30
FoulsContext
12.20
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Utrecht
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,121 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
FC Porto
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,601 km2,924 km in 14d
Schedule load40%High
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Utrecht |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | High · 40 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 3.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,601 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,121 km | 2,924 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.7 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
24N. Viergever
40M. Didden
2S. Horemans
55D. Murkin
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
22Miguel Rodríguez
9D. Min
20D. de Wit
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
12Z. Sanusi
21D. Prpić
5J. Bednarek
52Martim Fernandes
10Gabri Veiga
13P. Rosario
6S. Eustaquio
17Borja Sainz
27D. Gül
11Pepê
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Utrecht
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Porto
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Utrecht-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- FC Porto+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Utrecht · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
FC Porto · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Utrecht | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.33 | 2.00 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Utrecht | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.30 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Utrecht | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.67 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 4.67 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Utrecht | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 9.10 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 5.50 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · John Beaton 63 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.49league 4.06
Red cards0.19league 0.15
Cards 5+52%league 39%
Fouls22.5league 24.9
Penalties0.37league 0.39
Home wins56%league 48%
UtrechtNo previous matches with this referee.
FC PortoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Utrecht3 games · scored 0 · conceded 4
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
FC Porto3 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
1
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 17 · conceded 6
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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