Eredivisie Gameweek 26 Sun, Mar 14 · 16:00 Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Utrecht 11th · 11 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Groningen 7th · 14 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel159 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Utrecht—%
Draw—%
Groningen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Utrecht)

Forecast from 27 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Utrecht and Groningen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

UtrechtGroningen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 30
32 AttackIn forecast 41
31 DefenceIn forecast 21
65 Form indexContext 44
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Utrecht

Attack—
Defense risk—

Groningen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

UtrechtGroningen
1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.44
2.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.11
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.87
1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.21
+0.47 Goals minus xGContext +0.57
89% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 11%
12.89 ShotsContext 14.78
4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.78
34% On target shareContext 39%
10.25 Shots in the boxContext 10.38
69% Box shareContext 65%
14% ConversionContext 17%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
18.11 Shots allowedContext 15.33
7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.89
4.33 BlocksContext 4.13
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56
57% Save rateContext 60%
43% PossessionIn forecast 51%
391 PassesContext 434
313 Accurate passesContext 355
80% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.55 Team ratingContext 6.85
16.33 FoulsContext 8.89
10.67 Fouls sufferedContext 11.11
2.11 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20
2.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10
1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.62
1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.15
+0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.58
90% Scored inContext 90%
0% Clean sheetsContext 10%
13.70 ShotsContext 13.80
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
33% On target shareContext 38%
10.67 Shots in the boxContext 9.44
68% Box shareContext 62%
14% ConversionContext 16%
1.83 OffsidesContext 2.00
17.60 Shots allowedContext 15.00
6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80
4.10 BlocksContext 4.00
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
57% Save rateContext 60%
43% PossessionIn forecast 49%
388 PassesContext 425
312 Accurate passesContext 345
80% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.60 Team ratingContext 6.81
15.80 FoulsContext 9.60
10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Utrecht
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km417 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +4.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Twente2–10.7 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Willem II3–12.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Feyenoord0–50.5 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Excelsior2–10.9 xPts
  • D8 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles3–31.6 xPts
Groningen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel159 km421 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 44 · 8 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Ajax2–51.4 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Excelsior5–11.1 xPts
  • W18 SepH · PEC Zwolle3–02.0 xPts
  • D12 SepA · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.1 xPts
  • D6 SepH · Twente2–21.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Utrecht Groningen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 7 Mar7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km159 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways417 km421 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Utrecht Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Twente (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
22S. Padt(G)
5N. Panagiotou 3M. Didden 2S. Horemans
92A. Zagré 38O. Agougil 8J. van Overeem 23N. Vesterlund
11Ángel Alarcón 20D. de Wit 10Y. Cathline
Groningen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ajax (H) 2–5, 18 Oct
1E. Vaessen(G)
33H. Hateboer 5M. Rente 3T. Blokzijl 14J. Schreuders
24P. Clement 8T. de Jonge
11J. Ondrejka 26T. van Bergen 17D. van der Werff
9B. Willumsson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Utrecht Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Groningen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Utrecht · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
3.50
Groningen · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
2.75
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentUtrechtGroningen
Twente W 2–1 A D 2–2 H
Excelsior W 2–1 A W 5–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles D 3–3 H D 1–1 A
PSV Eindhoven L 1–6 H L 1–5 A
Points7 of 12 · 1.75 per game5 of 12 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Utrecht wins0 draws2 Groningen wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.00 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%
  • 9 Aug 2026Groningen2–1Utrecht
  • 14 Feb 2026Groningen1–2Utrecht
  • 14 Sep 2025Utrecht0–1Groningen
  • 13 Apr 2025Utrecht3–1Groningen
  • 20 Oct 2024Groningen0–1Utrecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

UtrechtGroningenForecast
Scored per game 1.782.44
Conceded per game 2.892.11
Match goals 4.674.56
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%89%
Over 3.5 67%67%
Both teams scored 89%89%
Clean sheets 0%11%
Failed to score 11%0%
Games99
UtrechtGroningenForecast
Scored per game 1.802.40
Conceded per game 2.602.00
Match goals 4.404.40
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 90%90%
Over 3.5 60%60%
Both teams scored 80%90%
Clean sheets 10%10%
Failed to score 10%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

UtrechtGroningenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.254.89
Corners conceded5.254.56
Match total9.509.4510.39
Over 8.563% 5/878% 7/9
Over 9.550% 4/856% 5/9
Over 10.538% 3/822% 2/9
Cards
Cards2.111.00
Opponent cards0.891.44
Match total3.002.442.77
Over 3.533% 3/911% 1/9
Over 4.522% 2/911% 1/9
UtrechtGroningenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.674.89
Corners conceded5.334.56
Match total10.009.4510.39
Over 8.567% 6/978% 7/9
Over 9.556% 5/956% 5/9
Over 10.544% 4/922% 2/9
Cards
Cards1.901.30
Opponent cards0.901.40
Match total2.802.702.77
Over 3.530% 3/1020% 2/10
Over 4.520% 2/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Utrecht9 games · scored 16 · conceded 26
1 4 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
3 7 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 7 76-90
Groningen9 games · scored 22 · conceded 19
4 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
4 5 31-45
2 4 46-60
3 3 61-75
4 2 76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 19 · conceded 28
1 4 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
6 8 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 8 76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 22 · conceded 21
4 3 0-15
5 3 16-30
4 5 31-45
2 5 46-60
3 3 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Ajax PEC Zwolle Mar 1416:00 Willem II Twente Mar 1416:00 Excelsior NEC Nijmegen Mar 1416:00 AZ Alkmaar Sparta Rotterdam Mar 1416:00 Utrecht Groningen Mar 1416:00 Heerenveen Fortuna Sittard Mar 1416:00 GO Ahead Eagles Feyenoord Mar 1416:00 Cambuur ADO Den Haag Mar 1416:00 Telstar PSV Eindhoven Mar 1416:00