Eredivisie Gameweek 26 Sun, Mar 14 · 16:00 Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
Heerenveen 8th · 12 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Fortuna Sittard 6th · 15 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel218 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Heerenveen—%
Draw—%
Fortuna Sittard—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Heerenveen)

Forecast from 27 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Heerenveen and Fortuna Sittard. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

HeerenveenFortuna Sittard
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
31 Current StrengthIn forecast 21
36 AttackIn forecast 19
40 DefenceIn forecast 19
39 Form indexContext 45
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heerenveen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Fortuna Sittard

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

HeerenveenFortuna Sittard
1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78
1.22 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.89
1.28 xGVia Att/Def 0.93
1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.39
+0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.85
67% Scored inContext 89%
44% Clean sheetsContext 11%
15.11 ShotsContext 10.00
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44
40% On target shareContext 44%
9.56 Shots in the boxContext 5.56
66% Box shareContext 57%
11% ConversionContext 18%
2.20 OffsidesContext 2.14
14.56 Shots allowedContext 19.33
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.22
4.44 BlocksContext 5.22
3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.44
73% Save rateContext 71%
53% PossessionIn forecast 35%
493 PassesContext 316
421 Accurate passesContext 243
85% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.92 Team ratingContext 6.79
8.67 FoulsContext 9.22
10.78 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.44
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.27 xGVia Att/Def 0.84
1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.35
+0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.76
70% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
14.90 ShotsContext 10.20
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20
40% On target shareContext 41%
9.50 Shots in the boxContext 5.20
66% Box shareContext 53%
11% ConversionContext 16%
2.20 OffsidesContext 2.00
15.20 Shots allowedContext 19.20
4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.10
4.70 BlocksContext 5.20
3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.30
69% Save rateContext 71%
54% PossessionIn forecast 36%
498 PassesContext 318
425 Accurate passesContext 245
85% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.77
8.40 FoulsContext 9.10
10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heerenveen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km604 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
  • W16 OctH · Excelsior4–01.9 xPts
  • L9 OctA · PSV Eindhoven0–20.4 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Sparta Rotterdam4–01.2 xPts
  • D13 SepH · Telstar0–01.7 xPts
  • L6 SepH · AZ Alkmaar2–30.9 xPts
Fortuna Sittard
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel218 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 45 · 8 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected
  • D18 OctA · NEC Nijmegen2–20.9 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Twente1–10.9 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Willem II1–01.4 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Ajax1–50.9 xPts
  • W6 SepA · ADO Den Haag3–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Heerenveen Fortuna Sittard
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 7 Mar7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km218 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways604 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Heerenveen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Excelsior (H) 4–0, 16 Oct
1B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude
8N. Courtens 16M. Linday
7M. Rivera 14L. Smans 20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
Fortuna Sittard Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs NEC Nijmegen (A) 2–2, 18 Oct
31M. Branderhorst(G)
28J. Hubner 23P. Brittijn 3R. Guth 6S. van Ottele 12Ivo Pinto
22S. ’t Zand 20É. Michut 14S. Simons
25L. Zeefuik 9A. Descotte

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Heerenveen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Fortuna Sittard Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Heerenveen · Home 1.40points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
2-1-2
Scored
1.40
Conceded
1.00
Fortuna Sittard · Away 2.20points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
3-2-0
Scored
2.20
Conceded
1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentHeerenveenFortuna Sittard
PSV Eindhoven L 0–2 A D 2–2 A
AZ Alkmaar L 2–3 H L 0–2 H
Willem II D 2–2 A W 1–0 A
Ajax D 2–2 A L 1–5 H
Twente W 1–0 H D 1–1 H
Points5 of 15 · 1.00 per game5 of 15 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Heerenveen wins2 draws2 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.83 Over 2.583% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 33%
  • 25 Apr 2026Heerenveen2–1Fortuna Sittard
  • 8 Nov 2025Fortuna Sittard2–0Heerenveen
  • 1 Feb 2025Heerenveen2–2Fortuna Sittard
  • 2 Nov 2024Fortuna Sittard3–0Heerenveen
  • 3 Feb 2024Fortuna Sittard3–3Heerenveen
  • 25 Nov 2023Heerenveen3–0Fortuna Sittard

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

HeerenveenFortuna SittardForecast
Scored per game 1.671.78
Conceded per game 1.221.89
Match goals 2.893.67
Over 1.5 78%89%
Over 2.5 56%67%
Over 3.5 56%67%
Both teams scored 33%78%
Clean sheets 44%11%
Failed to score 33%11%
Games99
HeerenveenFortuna SittardForecast
Scored per game 1.501.60
Conceded per game 1.101.90
Match goals 2.603.50
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 50%60%
Over 3.5 50%60%
Both teams scored 30%70%
Clean sheets 50%10%
Failed to score 40%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

HeerenveenFortuna SittardLeague
Corners
Corners won5.113.33
Corners conceded4.898.67
Match total10.0012.0010.39
Over 8.567% 6/983% 5/6
Over 9.544% 4/967% 4/6
Over 10.533% 3/967% 4/6
Cards
Cards1.001.56
Opponent cards1.331.78
Match total2.333.342.77
Over 3.511% 1/944% 4/9
Over 4.50% 0/922% 2/9
HeerenveenFortuna SittardLeague
Corners
Corners won5.203.43
Corners conceded5.207.71
Match total10.4011.1410.39
Over 8.570% 7/1071% 5/7
Over 9.550% 5/1057% 4/7
Over 10.540% 4/1057% 4/7
Cards
Cards1.001.50
Opponent cards1.201.60
Match total2.203.102.77
Over 3.510% 1/1040% 4/10
Over 4.50% 0/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Heerenveen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 2 76-90
Fortuna Sittard9 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
4 0-15
3 3 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 6 76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
1 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 4 61-75
5 2 76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 16 · conceded 19
4 0-15
3 3 16-30
2 3 31-45
2 3 46-60
2 4 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Ajax PEC Zwolle Mar 1416:00 Willem II Twente Mar 1416:00 Excelsior NEC Nijmegen Mar 1416:00 AZ Alkmaar Sparta Rotterdam Mar 1416:00 Utrecht Groningen Mar 1416:00 Heerenveen Fortuna Sittard Mar 1416:00 GO Ahead Eagles Feyenoord Mar 1416:00 Cambuur ADO Den Haag Mar 1416:00 Telstar PSV Eindhoven Mar 1416:00