Eredivisie Gameweek 26 Sun, Mar 14 · 16:00 Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam
Excelsior 10th · 11 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
NEC Nijmegen 12th · 10 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel95 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Excelsior—%
Draw—%
NEC Nijmegen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Rotterdam)

Forecast from 27 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

ExcelsiorNEC Nijmegen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
21 Current StrengthIn forecast 32
21 AttackIn forecast 37
18 DefenceIn forecast 33
11 Form indexContext 18
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Excelsior

Attack—
Defense risk—

NEC Nijmegen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ExcelsiorNEC Nijmegen
1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.78
1.60 xGVia Att/Def 2.16
1.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48
+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.49
89% Scored inContext 89%
22% Clean sheetsContext 0%
10.78 ShotsContext 15.11
3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22
35% On target shareContext 28%
8.25 Shots in the boxContext 9.78
70% Box shareContext 64%
17% ConversionContext 11%
1.00 OffsidesContext 2.57
15.67 Shots allowedContext 11.56
5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44
4.22 BlocksContext 3.11
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56
64% Save rateContext 58%
43% PossessionIn forecast 60%
390 PassesContext 488
309 Accurate passesContext 401
79% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.73 Team ratingContext 6.59
11.56 FoulsContext 11.33
7.33 Fouls sufferedContext 12.11
1.22 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20
1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.94
1.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
+0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.84
90% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.30 ShotsContext 12.00
3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80
34% On target shareContext 32%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.60
66% Box shareContext 59%
17% ConversionContext 9%
1.00 OffsidesContext 2.43
15.80 Shots allowedContext 12.70
5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30
4.50 BlocksContext 2.80
3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10
65% Save rateContext 59%
43% PossessionIn forecast 52%
389 PassesContext 442
309 Accurate passesContext 358
79% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.73 Team ratingContext 6.44
11.80 FoulsContext 11.70
7.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80
1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Excelsior
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km242 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -4.1 vs expected
  • L16 OctA · Heerenveen0–40.9 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Groningen1–51.7 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Ajax2–20.7 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Utrecht1–21.9 xPts
  • D8 SepA · NEC Nijmegen2–21.0 xPts
NEC Nijmegen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel95 km188 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 18 · 4 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · Fortuna Sittard2–21.9 xPts
  • D15 OctH · Levski Sofia1–11.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Ajax1–10.7 xPts
  • D20 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.7 xPts
  • L17 SepA · Juventus0–50.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Excelsior NEC Nijmegen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 7 Mar7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km95 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways242 km188 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Excelsior Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Heerenveen (A) 0–4, 16 Oct
1S. van Gassel(G)
15Simon Janssen 14J. Plug 4C. Widell 2E. da Silva Moreira
20L. Hartjes 3R. Meissen 8I. Yegoian
30Á. Þorsteinsson 19D. Garden 7Aymen Sliti
NEC Nijmegen Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Fortuna Sittard (H) 2–2, 18 Oct
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville 22A. Kaplan 21T. Storm
35Jamiro Monteiro 18D. Geiger 6D. Nejašmić 34Kevin Kers
99Clement Bischoff 20N. Lebreton
30B. Linssen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Excelsior Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
NEC Nijmegen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Excelsior · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
1.25
Conceded
2.50
NEC Nijmegen · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentExcelsiorNEC Nijmegen
Ajax D 2–2 A D 1–1 A
Willem II W 3–0 A W 4–1 A
Cambuur W 4–0 A L 0–3 A
Points7 of 9 · 2.33 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Excelsior wins1 draws2 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game1.50 – 3.00 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%
  • 8 Sep 2026NEC Nijmegen2–2Excelsior
  • 4 Apr 2026Excelsior0–2NEC Nijmegen
  • 9 Aug 2025NEC Nijmegen5–0Excelsior
  • 13 Aug 2023NEC Nijmegen3–4Excelsior

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

ExcelsiorNEC NijmegenForecast
Scored per game 1.781.67
Conceded per game 2.001.78
Match goals 3.783.44
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%78%
Over 3.5 56%56%
Both teams scored 67%89%
Clean sheets 22%0%
Failed to score 11%11%
Games99
ExcelsiorNEC NijmegenForecast
Scored per game 1.901.10
Conceded per game 2.002.20
Match goals 3.903.30
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%70%
Over 3.5 60%50%
Both teams scored 70%70%
Clean sheets 20%0%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ExcelsiorNEC NijmegenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.254.88
Corners conceded4.503.75
Match total8.758.6310.39
Over 8.550% 4/850% 4/8
Over 9.538% 3/838% 3/8
Over 10.525% 2/838% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.221.33
Opponent cards0.781.78
Match total2.003.112.77
Over 3.511% 1/956% 5/9
Over 4.50% 0/90% 0/9
ExcelsiorNEC NijmegenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.004.00
Corners conceded4.563.88
Match total8.567.8810.39
Over 8.544% 4/938% 3/8
Over 9.533% 3/925% 2/8
Over 10.522% 2/925% 2/8
Cards
Cards1.101.50
Opponent cards1.101.40
Match total2.202.902.77
Over 3.520% 2/1040% 4/10
Over 4.50% 0/100% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Excelsior9 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
1 4 0-15
2 16-30
6 3 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 3 61-75
3 5 76-90
NEC Nijmegen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
3 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 2 76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 19 · conceded 20
2 4 0-15
2 16-30
6 3 31-45
2 4 46-60
4 3 61-75
3 6 76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
3 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
6 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 5 61-75
3 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Ajax PEC Zwolle Mar 1416:00 Willem II Twente Mar 1416:00 Excelsior NEC Nijmegen Mar 1416:00 AZ Alkmaar Sparta Rotterdam Mar 1416:00 Utrecht Groningen Mar 1416:00 Heerenveen Fortuna Sittard Mar 1416:00 GO Ahead Eagles Feyenoord Mar 1416:00 Cambuur ADO Den Haag Mar 1416:00 Telstar PSV Eindhoven Mar 1416:00