Eredivisie Gameweek 26 Sun, Mar 14 · 16:00 Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Ajax 4th · 18 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
PEC Zwolle 15th · 7 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel83 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Ajax—%
Draw—%
PEC Zwolle—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Amsterdam)

Forecast from 27 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Ajax and PEC Zwolle. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AjaxPEC Zwolle
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
53 Current StrengthIn forecast 16
66 AttackIn forecast 17
55 DefenceIn forecast 14
63 Form indexContext 15
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ajax

Attack—
Defense risk—

PEC Zwolle

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AjaxPEC Zwolle
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11
1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.44
2.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.28
1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.69
+0.94 Goals minus xGContext -0.17
100% Scored inContext 56%
22% Clean sheetsContext 11%
22.78 ShotsContext 12.00
8.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22
36% On target shareContext 35%
16.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.33
71% Box shareContext 59%
13% ConversionContext 9%
2.13 OffsidesContext 2.00
10.00 Shots allowedContext 19.44
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.78
2.67 BlocksContext 5.78
3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33
74% Save rateContext 64%
62% PossessionIn forecast 41%
581 PassesContext 348
516 Accurate passesContext 265
89% Pass accuracyContext 76%
7.03 Team ratingContext 6.59
9.56 FoulsContext 11.22
9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40
2.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.20
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.90
+0.87 Goals minus xGContext -0.20
100% Scored inContext 50%
30% Clean sheetsContext 10%
21.70 ShotsContext 11.50
7.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90
36% On target shareContext 34%
15.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
71% Box shareContext 58%
13% ConversionContext 9%
2.33 OffsidesContext 2.00
9.50 Shots allowedContext 19.70
3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.90
2.60 BlocksContext 5.60
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
74% Save rateContext 65%
62% PossessionIn forecast 42%
576 PassesContext 355
509 Accurate passesContext 271
88% Pass accuracyContext 77%
7.05 Team ratingContext 6.60
9.80 FoulsContext 11.20
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ajax
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 63 · 11 pts vs 9.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Groningen5–21.4 xPts
  • D10 OctH · NEC Nijmegen1–12.1 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Excelsior2–22.1 xPts
  • W15 SepH · Willem II5–12.5 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Fortuna Sittard5–11.9 xPts
PEC Zwolle
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel83 km158 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 15 · 4 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · GO Ahead Eagles4–11.3 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Cambuur0–11.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Groningen0–30.8 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Feyenoord0–70.8 xPts
  • D4 SepA · Sparta Rotterdam2–21.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Ajax PEC Zwolle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 7 Mar7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 7 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km83 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km158 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Ajax Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Groningen (A) 5–2, 18 Oct
1M. ter Stegen(G)
5O. Wijndal 36D. Janse 30A. Bouwman 2Lucas Rosa
24J. Mokio 4S. Amrabat 18D. Klaassen
10O. Gloukh 38Marcos Leonardo 8J. Brandt
PEC Zwolle Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs GO Ahead Eagles (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1J. Schendelaar(G)
2S. Floranus 24N. Viergever 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen
8T. Sommer 30R. Thomas
11D. Mbayo 25T. Oosting 37Gilles van der Wal
17S. van Hooijdonk

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Ajax Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
PEC Zwolle Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Ajax · Home 1.20points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
1-3-1
Scored
2.20
Conceded
1.80
PEC Zwolle · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentAjaxPEC Zwolle
Groningen W 5–2 A L 0–3 A
NEC Nijmegen D 1–1 H L 1–3 H
Heerenveen D 2–2 H W 2–0 A
Points5 of 9 · 1.67 per game3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Ajax wins2 draws0 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.50 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets67% · 17%
  • 9 Aug 2026PEC Zwolle0–2Ajax
  • 1 Mar 2026PEC Zwolle0–0Ajax
  • 13 Sep 2025Ajax3–1PEC Zwolle
  • 9 Mar 2025PEC Zwolle0–1Ajax
  • 24 Nov 2024Ajax2–0PEC Zwolle
  • 17 Dec 2023Ajax2–2PEC Zwolle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AjaxPEC ZwolleForecast
Scored per game 3.001.11
Conceded per game 1.332.44
Match goals 4.333.56
Over 1.5 100%89%
Over 2.5 78%67%
Over 3.5 78%56%
Both teams scored 78%44%
Clean sheets 22%11%
Failed to score 0%44%
Games99
AjaxPEC ZwolleForecast
Scored per game 2.701.00
Conceded per game 1.202.40
Match goals 3.903.40
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 70%60%
Over 3.5 70%50%
Both teams scored 70%40%
Clean sheets 30%10%
Failed to score 10%50%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AjaxPEC ZwolleLeague
Corners
Corners won6.884.33
Corners conceded3.007.22
Match total9.8811.5510.39
Over 8.563% 5/889% 8/9
Over 9.550% 4/878% 7/9
Over 10.538% 3/867% 6/9
Cards
Cards2.001.44
Opponent cards1.781.00
Match total3.782.442.77
Over 3.556% 5/933% 3/9
Over 4.533% 3/922% 2/9
AjaxPEC ZwolleLeague
Corners
Corners won6.884.00
Corners conceded3.007.70
Match total9.8811.7010.39
Over 8.563% 5/890% 9/10
Over 9.550% 4/880% 8/10
Over 10.538% 3/870% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.901.30
Opponent cards2.000.90
Match total3.902.202.77
Over 3.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Over 4.540% 4/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Ajax9 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
7 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
6 4 76-90
PEC Zwolle9 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
1 0-15
2 6 16-30
1 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 5 61-75
2 5 76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 29 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
7 3 31-45
4 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
6 4 76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 10 · conceded 24
1 0-15
2 6 16-30
1 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 5 61-75
2 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Ajax PEC Zwolle Mar 1416:00 Willem II Twente Mar 1416:00 Excelsior NEC Nijmegen Mar 1416:00 AZ Alkmaar Sparta Rotterdam Mar 1416:00 Utrecht Groningen Mar 1416:00 Heerenveen Fortuna Sittard Mar 1416:00 GO Ahead Eagles Feyenoord Mar 1416:00 Cambuur ADO Den Haag Mar 1416:00 Telstar PSV Eindhoven Mar 1416:00