Eredivisie Gameweek 27 Sun, Mar 21 · 16:00 Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Utrecht 11th · 11 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Sparta Rotterdam 13th · 9 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel48 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Utrecht—%
Draw—%
Sparta Rotterdam—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Utrecht)

Forecast from 6 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

UtrechtSparta Rotterdam
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 18
32 AttackIn forecast 32
31 DefenceIn forecast 17
65 Form indexContext 20
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Utrecht

Attack—
Defense risk—

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

UtrechtSparta Rotterdam
1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78
2.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.44
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 2.12
1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.86
+0.47 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
89% Scored inContext 78%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.89 ShotsContext 14.56
4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.57
34% On target shareContext 35%
10.25 Shots in the boxContext 10.22
69% Box shareContext 69%
14% ConversionContext 12%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.67
18.11 Shots allowedContext 17.00
7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.44
4.33 BlocksContext 4.78
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88
57% Save rateContext 65%
43% PossessionIn forecast 45%
391 PassesContext 380
313 Accurate passesContext 308
80% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.55 Team ratingContext 6.70
16.33 FoulsContext 10.11
10.67 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89
2.11 Yellow cardsContext 1.67
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
2.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
1.38 xGVia Att/Def 2.05
1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.71
+0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.25
90% Scored inContext 80%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
13.70 ShotsContext 14.80
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.25
33% On target shareContext 34%
10.67 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
68% Box shareContext 70%
14% ConversionContext 12%
1.83 OffsidesContext 2.50
17.60 Shots allowedContext 16.90
6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30
4.10 BlocksContext 4.60
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56
57% Save rateContext 62%
43% PossessionIn forecast 46%
388 PassesContext 384
312 Accurate passesContext 311
80% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.60 Team ratingContext 6.70
15.80 FoulsContext 10.10
10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Utrecht
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km153 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +4.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Twente2–10.7 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Willem II3–12.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Feyenoord0–50.5 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Excelsior2–10.9 xPts
  • D8 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles3–31.6 xPts
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel48 km162 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Willem II3–22.0 xPts
  • D10 OctA · GO Ahead Eagles3–30.9 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Heerenveen0–41.6 xPts
  • L13 SepA · PSV Eindhoven1–40.2 xPts
  • D4 SepH · PEC Zwolle2–21.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Utrecht Sparta Rotterdam
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 14 Mar7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 14 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km48 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways153 km162 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one1414

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Utrecht Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Twente (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
22S. Padt(G)
5N. Panagiotou 3M. Didden 2S. Horemans
92A. Zagré 38O. Agougil 8J. van Overeem 23N. Vesterlund
11Ángel Alarcón 20D. de Wit 10Y. Cathline
Sparta Rotterdam Last XI · not confirmed
5-4-1 · vs Willem II (H) 3–2, 17 Oct
1M. Brouwer(G)
5B. Kuipers 4R. Martins Indi 6N. Verschuren 3M. Young 2Lushendry Edward Martes
11I. Babadi 10C. Hatenboer 8J. Toornstra 7Robin van Cruijsen
9Milan Zonneveld

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Utrecht Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Sparta Rotterdam Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Utrecht · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
3.50
Sparta Rotterdam · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentUtrechtSparta Rotterdam
Willem II W 3–1 H W 3–2 H
Feyenoord L 0–5 A L 0–1 H
Excelsior W 2–1 A L 1–2 A
GO Ahead Eagles D 3–3 H D 3–3 A
PSV Eindhoven L 1–6 H L 1–4 A
Points7 of 15 · 1.40 per game4 of 15 · 0.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Utrecht wins2 draws2 Sparta Rotterdam wins
Goals per game1.83 – 1.50 Over 2.567% Both scored83% Clean sheets0% · 17%
  • 22 Aug 2026Sparta Rotterdam3–3Utrecht
  • 25 Jan 2026Utrecht0–1Sparta Rotterdam
  • 17 Aug 2025Sparta Rotterdam2–1Utrecht
  • 14 May 2025Utrecht1–1Sparta Rotterdam
  • 3 Nov 2024Sparta Rotterdam1–4Utrecht
  • 26 Nov 2023Sparta Rotterdam1–2Utrecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

UtrechtSparta RotterdamForecast
Scored per game 1.781.78
Conceded per game 2.892.44
Match goals 4.674.22
Over 1.5 100%89%
Over 2.5 100%89%
Over 3.5 67%78%
Both teams scored 89%78%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 11%22%
Games99
UtrechtSparta RotterdamForecast
Scored per game 1.801.80
Conceded per game 2.602.50
Match goals 4.404.30
Over 1.5 100%90%
Over 2.5 90%90%
Over 3.5 60%80%
Both teams scored 80%80%
Clean sheets 10%0%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

UtrechtSparta RotterdamLeague
Corners
Corners won4.255.67
Corners conceded5.256.89
Match total9.5012.5610.39
Over 8.563% 5/889% 8/9
Over 9.550% 4/878% 7/9
Over 10.538% 3/867% 6/9
Cards
Cards2.111.67
Opponent cards0.891.11
Match total3.002.782.77
Over 3.533% 3/922% 2/9
Over 4.522% 2/911% 1/9
UtrechtSparta RotterdamLeague
Corners
Corners won4.675.60
Corners conceded5.336.40
Match total10.0012.0010.39
Over 8.567% 6/980% 8/10
Over 9.556% 5/970% 7/10
Over 10.544% 4/960% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.901.90
Opponent cards0.901.00
Match total2.802.902.77
Over 3.530% 3/1030% 3/10
Over 4.520% 2/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Utrecht9 games · scored 16 · conceded 26
1 4 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
3 7 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 7 76-90
Sparta Rotterdam9 games · scored 16 · conceded 22
2 0-15
2 6 16-30
2 3 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 4 61-75
3 5 76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 19 · conceded 28
1 4 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
6 8 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 8 76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 18 · conceded 25
2 1 0-15
2 6 16-30
2 3 31-45
5 5 46-60
3 5 61-75
4 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
PEC Zwolle Heerenveen Mar 2116:00 ADO Den Haag Willem II Mar 2116:00 AZ Alkmaar Excelsior Mar 2116:00 Groningen PSV Eindhoven Mar 2116:00 Utrecht Sparta Rotterdam Mar 2116:00 Feyenoord Cambuur Mar 2116:00 NEC Nijmegen Ajax Mar 2116:00 Twente GO Ahead Eagles Mar 2116:00 Telstar Fortuna Sittard Mar 2116:00