Valencia vs Alaves – 8 Mar 2026

La Liga Gameweek 27 Sun, Mar 8 · 20:00 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

Valencia 15th · 29 pts · 26 played LLWLW

3–2Full time

Alaves 16th · 27 pts · 26 played WLDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Valencia were slight favourites.

Valencia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Valencia. Valencia had 7.2 days of rest, Alaves 9 and had to travel 422 km.

Away travel422 kmRest days7.2 · 9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Valencia53%

Draw25%

Alaves22%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.00

Valencia50%

Draw26%

Alaves24%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.08

Valencia52%

Draw26%

Alaves22%

Expected goals 1.64 – 0.99

Valencia45%

Draw27%

Alaves28%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.12

Valencia54%

Draw24%

Alaves22%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.06

Over 2.5 50% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 12

Team strength

Valencia

Alaves

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

39 AttackIn forecast 48

52 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Valencia

Alaves

1.04 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.88

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.31

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

77% Scored inContext 62%

27% Clean sheetsContext 12%

10.77 ShotsContext 11.81

2.92 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.04

26% On target shareContext 33%

7.13 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

63% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 8%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.57

11.77 Shots allowedContext 12.31

4.32 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.81

3.00 BlocksContext 4.17

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

66% Save rateContext 65%

49% PossessionIn forecast 51%

409 PassesContext 427

335 Accurate passesContext 346

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.75

12.08 FoulsContext 14.96

11.12 Fouls sufferedContext 13.73

1.92 Yellow cardsContext 2.08

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.05 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.33

90% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.50 ShotsContext 13.30

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33

24% On target shareContext 36%

7.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

64% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 7%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.88

10.20 Shots allowedContext 14.70

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

2.40 BlocksContext 4.70

2.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

66% Save rateContext 62%

51% PossessionIn forecast 54%

414 PassesContext 438

339 Accurate passesContext 354

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.76

12.70 FoulsContext 13.80

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 13.90

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Valencia

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km114 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alaves

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel422 km843 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Valencia	Alaves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Mar	9La Liga 2025-2026, 27 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	422 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	114 km	843 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1S. Dimitrievski(G)

14José Gayà 24E. Cömert 4Unai Núñez 12Thierry Correia

23F. Ugrinic 2G. Rodríguez

17L. Ramazani 8Javi Guerra 11Luis Rioja

6U. Sadiq

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Alaves Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Antonio Sivera(G)

17Jonny 5Jon Pacheco 23C. Benavídez 14F. Tenaglia

10Carles Aleñá 18Jon Guridi 8Antonio Blanco 7Ángel Pérez

15L. Boyé 11Toni Martínez

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Valencia Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Alaves Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Valencia+0.9 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Alaves-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Valencia · Home 1.54points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 5-5-3
Scored: 1.23
Conceded: 1.00

Alaves · Away 0.62points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-9
Scored: 0.54
Conceded: 1.46

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Valencia	Alaves
Osasuna	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A	L 0–3 A
Villarreal	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H	L 1–3 A
Levante	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H	L 0–2 AW 2–1 H
Real Madrid	L 0–2 HL 0–4 A	L 1–2 H
Real Betis	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A
Espanyol	W 3–2 HD 2–2 A	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H
Getafe	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
Elche	D 1–1 H	W 3–1 H
Celta Vigo	L 1–4 A	L 0–1 H
Mallorca	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
Atletico Madrid	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H
Sevilla	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 A
Girona	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
Oviedo	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 H
Athletic Club	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 A
Barcelona	L 0–6 A	L 1–3 A
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 H
Points	28 of 75 · 1.12 per game	26 of 75 · 1.04 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Valencia wins4 draws4 Alaves wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.11 Over 2.544% Both scored44% Clean sheets22% · 44%

20 Oct 2025Alaves0–0Valencia
14 May 2025Alaves1–0Valencia
22 Dec 2024Valencia2–2Alaves
5 May 2024Valencia0–1Alaves
2 Sep 2023Alaves1–0Valencia
13 Feb 2022Alaves2–1Valencia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Valencia	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.04	0.88
Conceded per game	1.50	1.31
Match goals	2.54	2.19	2.68
Over 1.5	81%	65%
Over 2.5	42%	42%	50%
Over 3.5	19%	15%
Both teams scored	54%	54%	52%
Clean sheets	27%	12%
Failed to score	23%	38%
Games	26	26

	Valencia	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.90
Conceded per game	1.40	1.70
Match goals	2.60	2.60	2.68
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Valencia	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	4.96	5.17
Corners conceded	5.17	4.87
Match total	10.13	10.04	9.52
Over 8.5	65% 15/23	65% 15/23
Over 9.5	48% 11/23	52% 12/23
Over 10.5	48% 11/23	48% 11/23
Cards
Cards	1.96	2.19
Opponent cards	2.35	2.19
Match total	4.31	4.38	4.44
Over 3.5	65% 17/26	69% 18/26
Over 4.5	54% 14/26	46% 12/26

	Valencia	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.38
Corners conceded	4.90	5.13
Match total	9.90	10.51	9.52
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.00
Opponent cards	2.30	2.20
Match total	4.50	4.20	4.44
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla Spain · 12 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.75league 4.19

Red cards0.25league 0.28

Cards 5+50%league 46%

Fouls23.4league 24.5

Penalties0.25league 0.37

Home wins50%league 47%

Valencia1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D23 Sep 25A · Espanyol2–24

Alaves

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.