Valencia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Valencia52.8%fair odds 1.89
Draw25.4%fair odds 3.93
Alaves21.8%fair odds 4.59
Expected goals1.68 – 1.00total 2.68
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Alaves
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Valencia ↓ · Alaves → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Valencia goals, columns Alaves goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.25
- 1–010.9%9.17
- 2–09.7%10.32
- 2–19.7%10.33
- 0–07.5%13.41
- 0–16.2%16.05
- 1–25.7%17.39
- 3–05.4%18.41
- 3–15.4%18.43
- 2–24.8%20.68
Winning margin
12.7%
Valencia by 3+
fair 7.89
16.4%
Valencia by 2
fair 6.10
23.7%
Valencia by 1
fair 4.22
25.4%
Draw
fair 3.93
13.8%
Alaves by 1
fair 7.23
5.8%
Alaves by 2
fair 17.29
2.2%
Alaves by 3+
fair 45.71
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Valencia goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Alaves goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia win | 52.8% | 54.0% | -1.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.4% | 24.3% | +1.1 pp |
| Alaves win | 21.8% | 21.7% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 54.3% | -4.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.0% | 55.1% | -3.0 pp |
| Expected goals Valencia | 1.68 | 1.79 | -0.11 |
| Expected goals Alaves | 1.00 | 1.06 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Valencia win52.8%1.89
- Draw25.4%3.93
- Alaves win21.8%4.59
- Double chance Valencia or draw78.2%1.28
- Double chance Valencia or Alaves74.6%1.34
- Double chance Alaves or draw47.2%2.12
- Draw no bet Valencia70.8%1.41
- Draw no bet Alaves29.2%3.42
Goals
- Over 0.592.5%1.08
- Over 1.575.4%1.33
- Over 2.550.2%1.99
- Over 3.528.2%3.55
- Over 4.513.4%7.45
- Under 1.524.6%4.07
- Under 2.549.8%2.01
- Under 3.571.8%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes52.0%1.92
- No48.0%2.09
- Yes and over 2.539.9%2.51
- Valencia win and yes23.4%4.27
- Draw and yes18.0%5.57
- Alaves win and yes10.7%9.37
Team goals
- Valencia over 0.581.4%1.23
- Valencia over 1.550.1%2.00
- Valencia over 2.523.8%4.20
- Alaves over 0.563.2%1.58
- Alaves over 1.526.4%3.79
- Alaves over 2.58.0%12.48
- Valencia clean sheet36.8%2.72
- Alaves clean sheet18.6%5.38
- Valencia win to nil29.4%3.41
- Alaves win to nil11.1%8.98
Handicap
- Valencia −1.529.1%3.44
- Valencia −2.512.7%7.89
- Alaves +1.570.9%1.41
- Alaves +2.587.3%1.15
- Alaves −1.58.0%12.55
- Valencia +1.592.0%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored268
Favourite won53.4%
Avg chance given to result41.4%
1X2 Brier0.573
Over 2.5 called right58.2%
BTTS called right57.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 50 | 37.8% | 36.0% |
| 40–50% | 107 | 44.5% | 45.8% |
| 50–60% | 54 | 54.7% | 59.3% |
| 60–70% | 30 | 64.1% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 22 | 74.3% | 86.4% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 83.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 219 of 268 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5700 | 0.5623 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 42.4% |
| Favourite won | 54.3% | 55.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 219 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 268 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.