Valencia vs Sevilla – 7 Dec 2025

La Liga Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 7 · 15:15 Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

Valencia 16th · 14 pts · 14 played LLDWD

1–1Full time

Sevilla 14th · 16 pts · 14 played LLWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Valencia were slight favourites.

Valencia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 46). Absences weigh more on Sevilla. Valencia had 5.8 days of rest, Sevilla 7 and had to travel 540 km.

Away travel540 kmRest days5.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2

Valencia48%

Draw27%

Sevilla25%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.07

Valencia47%

Draw26%

Sevilla26%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Valencia46%

Draw27%

Sevilla27%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.07

Valencia41%

Draw28%

Sevilla32%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.20

Valencia49%

Draw26%

Sevilla25%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.12

Over 2.5 49% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.42
Matches 33

Team strength

Valencia

Sevilla

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 46

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

39 AttackIn forecast 48

52 DefenceIn forecast 57

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sevilla

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Valencia

Sevilla

0.93 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.36

1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.64

0.99 xGVia Att/Def 0.94

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.42

64% Scored inContext 86%

29% Clean sheetsContext 21%

10.07 ShotsContext 10.79

2.93 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.36

29% On target shareContext 31%

6.62 Shots in the boxContext 7.29

61% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 3.80

13.57 Shots allowedContext 10.71

4.93 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.64

3.54 BlocksContext 3.82

3.46 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.58

66% Save rateContext 72%

47% PossessionIn forecast 54%

398 PassesContext 417

326 Accurate passesContext 341

82% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.78

11.71 FoulsContext 14.86

10.86 Fouls sufferedContext 13.79

1.79 Yellow cardsContext 2.93

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

70% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.00 ShotsContext 10.80

3.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

30% On target shareContext 29%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

63% Box shareContext 61%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 3.57

12.50 Shots allowedContext 10.60

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.22 BlocksContext 3.00

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

68% Save rateContext 68%

48% PossessionIn forecast 54%

418 PassesContext 413

345 Accurate passesContext 335

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.76

12.00 FoulsContext 14.90

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 3.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Valencia

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km604 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sevilla

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel540 km1,641 km in 14d

Schedule load11%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Valencia	Sevilla
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Dec	7La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	540 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	604 km	1,641 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25Julen Agirrezabala(G)

14José Gayà 3Copete 5César Tárrega 12Thierry Correia

18Pepelu 8Javi Guerra

7A. Danjuma 10André Almeida 11Luis Rioja

9Hugo Duro

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Sevilla Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1O. Vlachodimos(G)

36Oso 32A. López Gallo 6N. Gudelj 3César Azpilicueta 2J. Carmona Navarro

20M. Sow 19B. Mendy 18L. Agoumé 14Peque Fernández

9A. Adams

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Valencia Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sevilla Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Valencia+1.9 pp
Draw-0.7 pp
Sevilla-1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Valencia · Home 1.57points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-2
Scored: 1.29
Conceded: 0.86

Sevilla · Away 1.29points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-4
Scored: 1.29
Conceded: 1.57

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 11 this season

Opponent	Valencia	Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 A
Real Betis	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 H
Villarreal	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 H
Alaves	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 A
Girona	L 1–2 A	W 2–0 A
Espanyol	D 2–2 A	L 1–2 A
Athletic Club	W 2–0 H	L 2–3 A
Barcelona	L 0–6 A	W 4–1 H
Getafe	W 3–0 H	L 1–2 H
Osasuna	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 H
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Points	11 of 33 · 1.00 per game	15 of 33 · 1.36 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Valencia wins4 draws4 Sevilla wins

Goals per game0.70 – 1.10 Over 2.520% Both scored50% Clean sheets20% · 40%

11 Apr 2025Valencia1–0Sevilla
11 Jan 2025Sevilla1–1Valencia
17 Feb 2024Valencia0–0Sevilla
11 Aug 2023Sevilla1–2Valencia
16 Apr 2023Valencia0–2Sevilla
18 Oct 2022Sevilla1–1Valencia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Valencia	Sevilla	Forecast
Scored per game	0.93	1.36
Conceded per game	1.57	1.64
Match goals	2.50	3.00	2.62
Over 1.5	79%	86%
Over 2.5	43%	71%	49%
Over 3.5	21%	29%
Both teams scored	43%	64%	52%
Clean sheets	29%	21%
Failed to score	36%	14%
Games	14	14

	Valencia	Sevilla	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.20
Conceded per game	1.40	1.60
Match goals	2.30	2.80	2.62
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	49%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Valencia	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.29
Corners conceded	5.73	5.36
Match total	10.73	10.65	9.72
Over 8.5	64% 7/11	71% 10/14
Over 9.5	55% 6/11	71% 10/14
Over 10.5	55% 6/11	50% 7/14
Cards
Cards	1.86	3.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.14
Match total	3.86	5.14	4.30
Over 3.5	50% 7/14	71% 10/14
Over 4.5	43% 6/14	64% 9/14

	Valencia	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	4.43	6.40
Corners conceded	6.00	4.90
Match total	10.43	11.30	9.72
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	3.30
Opponent cards	2.40	2.40
Match total	4.30	5.70	4.30
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 33 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.58league 4.05

Red cards0.33league 0.27

Cards 5+64%league 45%

Fouls26.2league 24.7

Penalties0.42league 0.34

Home wins52%league 47%

Valencia5 with this referee

Record0-1-4 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

L14 Sep 25A · Barcelona0–61
L19 May 24H · Girona1–32
L10 Feb 24A · Las Palmas0–20
L8 Dec 23A · Getafe0–15
D22 May 21A · Huesca0–01

Sevilla3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D28 Jan 24H · Osasuna1–14
W26 Sep 23H · Almeria5–13
L21 Aug 23A · Alaves3–42

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.