Verona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 22). Inter usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Verona had 3.8 days of rest, Inter 3.7 and had to travel 141 km.
Away travel141 kmRest days3.8 · 3.7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Verona9%
Draw18%
Inter73%
Verona9%
Draw17%
Inter74%
Verona9%
Draw18%
Inter73%
Verona6%
Draw15%
Inter79%
Verona9%
Draw17%
Inter74%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Verona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 70
Team strength
Verona
Inter
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
86
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
15
AttackIn forecast
91
29
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisInter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VeronaInter
0.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.44
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.97
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
-0.67
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
44%
Scored inContext
100%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
13.22
ShotsContext
18.44
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
40%
On target shareContext
31%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
12.78
59%
Box shareContext
69%
4%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.29
11.11
Shots allowedContext
9.22
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
3.33
BlocksContext
3.50
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
63%
Save rateContext
83%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
312
PassesContext
514
228
Accurate passesContext
447
73%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.62
Team ratingContext
7.05
16.67
FoulsContext
14.11
9.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.22
2.44
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
2.38
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.83
-0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
50%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
12.40
ShotsContext
18.80
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
40%
On target shareContext
29%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
13.20
59%
Box shareContext
70%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.83
11.40
Shots allowedContext
8.50
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.63
3.40
BlocksContext
3.22
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
65%
Save rateContext
86%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
301
PassesContext
512
216
Accurate passesContext
445
72%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.66
Team ratingContext
7.11
17.90
FoulsContext
13.20
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Verona
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km308 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Inter
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel141 km1,315 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Verona |
Inter |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Oct | 3.7Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 141 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 308 km | 1,315 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Verona
Confirmed XI
1L. Montipò(G)
3M. Frese
15V. Nelsson
37A. Bella-Kotchap
12D. Bradarić
24A. Bernede
63R. Gagliardini
11J. Akpa Akpro
7R. Belghali
16G. Orban
17Giovane
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
95A. Bastoni
31Y. Bisseck
25M. Akanji
30Carlos Augusto
7P. Zieliński
20H. Çalhanoğlu
8P. Sučić
11L. de Lima
10L. Martínez
14A. Bonny
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Verona
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Inter
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Verona+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Inter+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Verona · Home
0.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Inter · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Verona | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Sassuolo | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Juventus | D 1–1 H | L 3–4 A |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 H | W 4–1 H |
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 4 of 18 · 0.67 per game | 12 of 18 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Verona wins1 draws7 Inter wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.75
Over 2.563%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets0% · 63%
- 3 May 2025Inter1–0Verona
- 23 Nov 2024Verona0–5Inter
- 26 May 2024Verona2–2Inter
- 6 Jan 2024Inter2–1Verona
- 3 May 2023Verona0–6Inter
- 14 Jan 2023Inter1–0Verona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Verona | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.56 | 2.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 2.11 | 3.67 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 78% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Verona | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.56 | 2.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 2.11 | 3.67 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 78% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Verona | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 7.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 7.45 | 10.66 | 8.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.66 | 3.00 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 6/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Verona | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 6.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 9.44 | 8.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.10 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.31league 3.92
Red cards0.20league 0.12
Cards 5+27%league 39%
Fouls24.8league 25.9
Penalties0.21league 0.29
Home wins26%league 38%
Verona10 with this referee
Record3-5-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds4
- W25 May 25A · Empoli2–12
- D1 Apr 24A · Cagliari1–12
- W13 Jan 24H · Empoli2–14
- W26 Aug 23H · AS Roma2–12
- D30 Apr 23A · Cremonese1–10
Inter11 with this referee
Record3-5-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.1
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D5 Apr 25A · Parma2–23
- D1 Mar 25A · Napoli1–10
- L6 Feb 25A · Fiorentina0–30
- W28 Dec 24A · Cagliari3–00
- W25 Feb 24A · Lecce4–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Verona9 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
76-90
Inter9 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Verona10 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
1
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 25 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
