Verona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Torino were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 24). Verona had 7.2 days of rest, Torino 8.1 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days7.2 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Verona33%
Draw29%
Torino37%
Verona35%
Draw27%
Torino38%
Verona34%
Draw29%
Torino37%
Verona27%
Draw29%
Torino44%
Verona35%
Draw27%
Torino38%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Verona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAntonio Rapuano
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 53
Team strength
Verona
Torino
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
15
AttackIn forecast
39
29
DefenceIn forecast
47
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTorino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VeronaTorino
0.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
56%
Scored inContext
71%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
41%
11.75
ShotsContext
11.88
4.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.47
37%
On target shareContext
38%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.71
59%
Box shareContext
65%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
2.21
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.81
Shots allowedContext
13.35
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.06
BlocksContext
3.47
3.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
67%
Save rateContext
62%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
309
PassesContext
362
228
Accurate passesContext
289
74%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.73
17.06
FoulsContext
13.82
8.25
Fouls sufferedContext
10.94
2.63
Yellow cardsContext
1.76
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.60
ShotsContext
12.10
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
37%
On target shareContext
37%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
65%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.63
13.40
Shots allowedContext
11.70
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.30
BlocksContext
3.40
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
64%
Save rateContext
59%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
302
PassesContext
374
218
Accurate passesContext
295
72%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.77
17.20
FoulsContext
13.90
7.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Verona
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km282 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Torino
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel262 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Verona |
Torino |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Dec | 8.1Serie A 2025-2026, 27 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 282 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Verona
Confirmed XI
1L. Montipò(G)
37A. Bella-Kotchap
15V. Nelsson
5Unai Núñez
3M. Frese
73Al Musrati
8S. Serdar
2D. Oyegoke
24A. Bernede
17Giovane
25D. Mosquera
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
23Saúl Coco
13G. Maripán
44A. Ismajli
7Z. Aboukhlal
66G. Gineitis
6E. İlkhan
10N. Vlašić
20V. Lazaro
18G. Simeone
19C. Adams
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Verona
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Torino
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Verona-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Torino+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Verona · Home
0.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-3
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.29
Torino · Away
1.13points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-3
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Verona | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | L 0–3 A | L 2–3 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Atalanta | W 3–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Genoa | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Parma | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Inter | L 1–2 H | L 0–5 A |
| Como | L 1–3 A | L 1–5 H |
| Cagliari | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Pisa | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Sassuolo | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Juventus | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Lazio | L 0–4 A | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 11 of 45 · 0.73 per game | 16 of 45 · 1.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Verona wins3 draws5 Torino wins
Goals per game0.63 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets13% · 50%
- 6 Apr 2025Torino1–1Verona
- 20 Sep 2024Verona2–3Torino
- 12 May 2024Verona1–2Torino
- 2 Oct 2023Torino0–0Verona
- 14 May 2023Verona0–1Torino
- 4 Jan 2023Torino1–1Verona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Verona | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.81 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 2.65 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 59% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 59% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 47% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 41% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 29% | |
| Games | 16 | 17 |
| Verona | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.60 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Verona | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 4.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.38 | 8.47 | 8.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 8/16 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 6/16 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 19% 3/16 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.63 | 1.82 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.59 | |
| Match total | 4.38 | 3.41 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 11/16 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 9/16 | 24% 4/17 | |
| Verona | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.56 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 7.45 | 8.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.30 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Rapuano Italy · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.55league 3.90
Red cards0.34league 0.17
Cards 5+49%league 38%
Fouls25.6league 25.8
Penalties0.26league 0.30
Home wins51%league 39%
Verona3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L9 Mar 25H · Bologna1–23
- W5 May 24H · Fiorentina2–12
- L18 Sep 22A · Fiorentina0–24
Torino7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L18 May 25A · Lecce0–11
- W2 Mar 25A · Monza2–02
- W25 Aug 24H · Atalanta2–13
- D21 Apr 24H · Frosinone0–02
- W6 Mar 23H · Bologna1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Verona16 games · scored 13 · conceded 25
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
1
8
76-90
Torino17 games · scored 17 · conceded 28
1
2
0-15
4
7
16-30
4
7
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
6
61-75
2
4
76-90
Verona10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
6
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
