VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfB Stuttgart
7th · 9 pts · 5 played
LWLWW
1–0Full time
1. FC Heidenheim
17th · 3 pts · 5 played
LLLLW
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were clear favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 29). VfB Stuttgart usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. VfB Stuttgart had 2.8 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 8 and had to travel 72 km.
Away travel72 kmRest days2.8 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 1
VfB Stuttgart67%
Draw20%
1. FC Heidenheim14%
VfB Stuttgart63%
Draw22%
1. FC Heidenheim15%
VfB Stuttgart66%
Draw20%
1. FC Heidenheim14%
VfB Stuttgart59%
Draw22%
1. FC Heidenheim19%
VfB Stuttgart64%
Draw21%
1. FC Heidenheim15%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 88
Team strength
VfB Stuttgart1. FC Heidenheim
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
70
AttackIn forecast
48
58
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB Stuttgart1. FC Heidenheim
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
100%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.20
ShotsContext
9.40
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
35%
On target shareContext
36%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
64%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.60
11.60
Shots allowedContext
15.40
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.00
BlocksContext
2.60
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
84%
Save rateContext
71%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
507
PassesContext
325
438
Accurate passesContext
253
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.20
FoulsContext
10.20
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
90%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
18.00
ShotsContext
9.40
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
33%
On target shareContext
36%
12.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
70%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.70
OffsidesContext
1.40
9.60
Shots allowedContext
14.10
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.60
BlocksContext
3.00
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
76%
Save rateContext
66%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
537
PassesContext
352
471
Accurate passesContext
280
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.70
FoulsContext
9.80
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km937 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel72 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
1. FC Heidenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 72 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 937 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
14L. Jaquez
22L. Assignon
30Chema Andrés
16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling
11B. El Khannouss
27B. Bouanani
9E. Demirović
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
19J. Föhrenbach
4T. Siersleben
6P. Mainka
23O. Traoré
16J. Niehues
22A. Ibrahimović
30N. Dorsch
3J. Schöppner
20L. Kerber
29M. Kaufmann
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- 1. FC Heidenheim-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
1. FC Heidenheim · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 VfB Stuttgart wins1 draws2 1. FC Heidenheim wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 25 Apr 2025VfB Stuttgart0–11. FC Heidenheim
- 15 Dec 20241. FC Heidenheim1–3VfB Stuttgart
- 31 Mar 2024VfB Stuttgart3–31. FC Heidenheim
- 5 Nov 20231. FC Heidenheim2–0VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.80 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.80 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 60% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 40% | |
| Games | 7 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 13.40 | 8.20 | 10.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 4/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 6.20 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.40 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 7.90 | 10.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.60 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 88 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 4.20
Red cards0.18league 0.27
Cards 5+31%league 41%
Fouls22.0league 22.7
Penalties0.31league 0.45
Home wins52%league 39%
VfB Stuttgart9 with this referee
Record3-2-4
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D19 Apr 25A · Union Berlin4–42
- L25 Jan 25A · FSV Mainz 050–23
- L19 Oct 24A · Bayern München0–42
- L17 Dec 23A · Bayern München0–33
- W11 Nov 23H · Borussia Dortmund2–12
1. FC Heidenheim2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L5 Apr 25H · Bayer Leverkusen0–11
- L22 Oct 23H · FC Augsburg2–53
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart5 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
3
3
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim5 games · scored 4 · conceded 10
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
61-75
7
5
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
