VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfB Stuttgart
6th · 22 pts · 12 played
WLWDL
0–5Full time
Bayern München
1st · 34 pts · 12 played
WWDWW
Our take
Bayern München were slight favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 65). VfB Stuttgart had 6 days of rest, Bayern München 7 and had to travel 191 km.
Away travel191 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
VfB Stuttgart19%
Draw21%
Bayern München60%
VfB Stuttgart19%
Draw24%
Bayern München57%
VfB Stuttgart19%
Draw21%
Bayern München60%
VfB Stuttgart14%
Draw19%
Bayern München67%
VfB Stuttgart19%
Draw24%
Bayern München57%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 94
Team strength
VfB StuttgartBayern München
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
93
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
70
AttackIn forecast
96
58
DefenceIn forecast
90
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB StuttgartBayern München
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.67
1.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
2.25
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.65
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+1.42
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.17
ShotsContext
18.08
5.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.33
36%
On target shareContext
41%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
12.08
62%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
20%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.27
11.50
Shots allowedContext
8.58
4.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
3.08
BlocksContext
3.40
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.63
76%
Save rateContext
72%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
527
PassesContext
699
450
Accurate passesContext
631
85%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.21
11.25
FoulsContext
9.92
12.25
Fouls sufferedContext
9.25
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
2.00
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.90
90%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.20
ShotsContext
16.20
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
36%
On target shareContext
36%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
66%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
18%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.44
11.60
Shots allowedContext
9.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
3.50
BlocksContext
3.14
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
74%
Save rateContext
76%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
517
PassesContext
679
438
Accurate passesContext
612
85%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.06
12.40
FoulsContext
10.10
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
7.70
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,603 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Bayern München
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel191 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
Bayern München |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 191 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,603 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
3R. Hendriks
2A. Al Dakhil
4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller
30Chema Andrés
18J. Leweling
11B. El Khannouss
28N. Nartey
26D. Undav
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
40J. Urbig(G)
20T. Bischof
3M. Kim
2D. Upamecano
27K. Laimer
8L. Goretzka
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
22R. Guerreiro
17M. Olise
11N. Jackson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Bayern München-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
3.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-0
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 0.60
Bayern München · Away
2.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 A | W 5–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 3–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 1–3 A | W 6–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–3 A | W 6–2 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Union Berlin | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 10 of 24 · 1.25 per game | 22 of 24 · 2.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 VfB Stuttgart wins2 draws5 Bayern München wins
Goals per game1.13 – 2.75
Over 2.5100%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets0% · 38%
- 28 Feb 2025VfB Stuttgart1–3Bayern München
- 19 Oct 2024Bayern München4–0VfB Stuttgart
- 4 May 2024VfB Stuttgart3–1Bayern München
- 17 Dec 2023Bayern München3–0VfB Stuttgart
- 4 Mar 2023VfB Stuttgart1–2Bayern München
- 10 Sep 2022Bayern München2–2VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 3.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.42 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.17 | 4.42 | 3.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 100% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| VfB Stuttgart | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 3.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.20 | 3.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 100% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.58 | 5.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.58 | 4.17 | |
| Match total | 10.16 | 9.75 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 8/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 7/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 4/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 3.67 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 5/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 4/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.30 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.10 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.50 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 94 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.66league 3.94
Red cards0.18league 0.21
Cards 5+32%league 41%
Fouls22.2league 21.6
Penalties0.31league 0.33
Home wins53%league 44%
VfB Stuttgart10 with this referee
Record4-2-4
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W5 Oct 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim1–01
- D19 Apr 25A · Union Berlin4–42
- L25 Jan 25A · FSV Mainz 050–23
- L19 Oct 24A · Bayern München0–42
- L17 Dec 23A · Bayern München0–33
Bayern München7 with this referee
Record5-1-1
Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W13 Sep 25H · Hamburger SV5–02
- W19 Oct 24H · VfB Stuttgart4–00
- W3 Feb 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–10
- W17 Dec 23H · VfB Stuttgart3–00
- L19 Mar 23A · Bayer Leverkusen1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart12 games · scored 21 · conceded 17
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
61-75
7
6
76-90
Bayern München12 games · scored 44 · conceded 9
3
2
0-15
9
2
16-30
10
31-45
4
1
46-60
6
61-75
12
4
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
61-75
7
3
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 29 · conceded 10
4
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
8
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
9
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
