VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfB Stuttgart
3rd · 53 pts · 27 played
DWDWW
0–2Full time
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 61 pts · 27 played
DLWWW
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 70). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for VfB Stuttgart. VfB Stuttgart had 12.9 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 14 and had to travel 327 km.
Away travel327 kmRest days12.9 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
VfB Stuttgart43%
Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund35%
VfB Stuttgart35%
Draw27%
Borussia Dortmund38%
VfB Stuttgart42%
Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund36%
VfB Stuttgart34%
Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund43%
VfB Stuttgart41%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund35%
Over 2.5 72%
Both score 71%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyRobert Schröder
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 68
Team strength
VfB StuttgartBorussia Dortmund
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
70
AttackIn forecast
69
58
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB StuttgartBorussia Dortmund
2.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.15
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.04
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
93%
Scored inContext
100%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
14.70
ShotsContext
13.22
5.74
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
39%
On target shareContext
35%
9.78
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
66%
Box shareContext
74%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
2.32
OffsidesContext
1.89
12.00
Shots allowedContext
10.15
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.46
3.15
BlocksContext
2.87
3.24
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
72%
Save rateContext
72%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
517
PassesContext
489
436
Accurate passesContext
413
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.99
9.70
FoulsContext
10.96
11.93
Fouls sufferedContext
10.15
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
1.81
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.07
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
2.15
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.60
ShotsContext
14.20
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
40%
On target shareContext
32%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
11.56
65%
Box shareContext
77%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.20
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.00
BlocksContext
3.00
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
64%
Save rateContext
64%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
532
PassesContext
477
445
Accurate passesContext
400
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.00
9.50
FoulsContext
10.90
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km269 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Dortmund
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel327 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 327 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 269 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
3R. Hendriks
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
7M. Mittelstädt
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
22L. Assignon
10C. Führich
28N. Nartey
26D. Undav
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
5A. Bensebaini
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
24D. Svensson
17C. Chukwuemeka
7J. Bellingham
20M. Sabitzer
26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier
9S. Guirassy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Borussia Dortmund-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
2.46points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-2-1
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 0.92
Borussia Dortmund · Away
2.00points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-1
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 1.15
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | W 5–2 AW 3–2 H | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| RB Leipzig | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 4–0 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Union Berlin | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–2 H | D 3–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 4–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 4–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Bayern München | L 0–5 H | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | L 1–2 A | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 52 of 78 · 2.00 per game | 60 of 78 · 2.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 VfB Stuttgart wins2 draws3 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game1.89 – 2.00
Over 2.578%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets11% · 22%
- 22 Nov 2025Borussia Dortmund3–3VfB Stuttgart
- 8 Feb 2025Borussia Dortmund1–2VfB Stuttgart
- 22 Sep 2024VfB Stuttgart5–1Borussia Dortmund
- 6 Apr 2024Borussia Dortmund0–1VfB Stuttgart
- 11 Nov 2023VfB Stuttgart2–1Borussia Dortmund
- 15 Apr 2023VfB Stuttgart3–3Borussia Dortmund
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.07 | 2.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.04 | |
| Match goals | 3.41 | 3.19 | 3.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 74% | 59% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 56% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 0% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 3.90 | 3.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 90% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.15 | 5.65 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.15 | 4.27 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 9.92 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 14/26 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 13/26 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 8/26 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.63 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.56 | 3.59 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 12/27 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 9/27 | 37% 10/27 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 10.20 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Schröder Germany · 68 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.99league 3.74
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+43%league 38%
Fouls23.5league 20.5
Penalties0.35league 0.37
Home wins47%league 45%
VfB Stuttgart5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L21 Apr 24A · Werder Bremen1–23
- W8 Mar 24H · Union Berlin2–01
- D27 May 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–10
- W14 May 22H · 1.FC Köln2–11
- L14 Dec 21H · Bayern München0–51
Borussia Dortmund8 with this referee
Record5-2-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W13 Sep 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim4–22
- W4 May 24H · FC Augsburg5–10
- D29 Oct 23A · Eintracht Frankfurt3–32
- D26 Aug 23A · VfL Bochum1–11
- W4 Feb 23H · SC Freiburg5–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart27 games · scored 56 · conceded 36
4
4
0-15
9
4
16-30
12
8
31-45
7
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
19
14
76-90
Borussia Dortmund27 games · scored 58 · conceded 28
7
1
0-15
5
4
16-30
15
3
31-45
7
5
46-60
8
6
61-75
16
9
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 23 · conceded 14
4
1
0-15
4
5
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
8
3
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 23 · conceded 15
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
