Bundesliga Gameweek 28 Sat, Apr 4 · 17:30 MHPArena, Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart 3rd · 53 pts · 27 played
0–2Full time
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 61 pts · 27 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
VfB Stuttgart42.9%fair odds 2.33
Draw22.4%fair odds 4.47
Borussia Dortmund34.7%fair odds 2.88
Expected goals1.96 – 1.75total 3.71
Likeliest score1–18.8%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

VfB Stuttgart

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Borussia Dortmund

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

VfB Stuttgart ↓ · Borussia Dortmund →0123456+
02.93.83.82.21.00.30.1
14.38.87.44.31.90.70.3
24.78.27.24.21.80.60.2
33.15.44.72.71.20.40.2
41.52.62.31.30.60.20.1
50.61.00.90.50.20.10.0
6+0.30.50.40.20.10.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfB Stuttgart goals, columns Borussia Dortmund goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–18.8%11.31
  • 2–18.2%12.17
  • 1–27.4%13.59
  • 2–27.2%13.89
  • 3–15.4%18.65
  • 3–24.7%21.29
  • 2–04.7%21.31
  • 1–04.3%22.99
  • 1–34.3%23.27
  • 2–34.2%23.78

Winning margin

11.1% VfB Stuttgart by 3+ fair 9.03
13.0% VfB Stuttgart by 2 fair 7.72
18.9% VfB Stuttgart by 1 fair 5.30
22.4% Draw fair 4.47
16.8% Borussia Dortmund by 1 fair 5.94
10.4% Borussia Dortmund by 2 fair 9.63
7.5% Borussia Dortmund by 3+ fair 13.34

Goal distribution

Total goals

3%0
8%1
17%2
21%3
19%4
31%5+

VfB Stuttgart goals

14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+

Borussia Dortmund goals

17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
10%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
VfB Stuttgart win 42.9% 41.5% +1.5 pp
Draw 22.4% 24.0% -1.6 pp
Borussia Dortmund win 34.7% 34.6% +0.2 pp
Over 2.5 71.6% 64.2% +7.4 pp
Both teams score 71.4% 65.8% +5.6 pp
Expected goals VfB Stuttgart 1.96 1.74 +0.22
Expected goals Borussia Dortmund 1.75 1.57 +0.18

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • VfB Stuttgart win42.9%2.33
  • Draw22.4%4.47
  • Borussia Dortmund win34.7%2.88
  • Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw65.3%1.53
  • Double chance VfB Stuttgart or Borussia Dortmund77.6%1.29
  • Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw57.1%1.75
  • Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart55.3%1.81
  • Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund44.7%2.24

Goals

  • Over 0.597.1%1.03
  • Over 1.588.9%1.12
  • Over 2.571.6%1.40
  • Over 3.550.8%1.97
  • Over 4.531.5%3.18
  • Under 1.511.1%9.02
  • Under 2.528.4%3.52
  • Under 3.549.2%2.03

Both teams to score

  • Yes71.4%1.40
  • No28.6%3.50
  • Yes and over 2.562.6%1.60
  • VfB Stuttgart win and yes28.5%3.51
  • Draw and yes19.5%5.14
  • Borussia Dortmund win and yes23.5%4.26

Team goals

  • VfB Stuttgart over 0.585.9%1.16
  • VfB Stuttgart over 1.558.2%1.72
  • VfB Stuttgart over 2.531.2%3.21
  • Borussia Dortmund over 0.582.7%1.21
  • Borussia Dortmund over 1.552.3%1.91
  • Borussia Dortmund over 2.525.7%3.90
  • VfB Stuttgart clean sheet17.3%5.77
  • Borussia Dortmund clean sheet14.1%7.08
  • VfB Stuttgart win to nil14.4%6.92
  • Borussia Dortmund win to nil11.2%8.90

Handicap

  • VfB Stuttgart −1.524.0%4.16
  • VfB Stuttgart −2.511.1%9.03
  • Borussia Dortmund +1.576.0%1.32
  • Borussia Dortmund +2.588.9%1.12
  • Borussia Dortmund −1.517.9%5.59
  • VfB Stuttgart +1.582.1%1.22

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored249 Favourite won57.0% Avg chance given to result43.4% 1X2 Brier0.557 Over 2.5 called right60.6% BTTS called right57.4%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3338.3%36.4%
40–50%7744.9%46.8%
50–60%6755.2%61.2%
60–70%3964.5%69.2%
70–80%2273.9%77.3%
80%+1186.3%81.8%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 202 of 249 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.54870.5468
Avg chance given to result43.9%43.3%
Favourite won58.4%57.9%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 202 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 249 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.