VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach – 30 Aug 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 30 · 14:30 MHPArena, Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart 13th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–0Full time

Borussia Mönchengladbach 10th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.

VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 44). VfB Stuttgart had 7 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 5.9 and had to travel 331 km.

Away travel331 kmRest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

VfB Stuttgart56%

Draw23%

Borussia Mönchengladbach21%

Expected goals 1.96 – 1.13

VfB Stuttgart54%

Draw25%

Borussia Mönchengladbach22%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.03

VfB Stuttgart56%

Draw23%

Borussia Mönchengladbach21%

Expected goals 1.96 – 1.13

VfB Stuttgart48%

Draw25%

Borussia Mönchengladbach27%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.27

VfB Stuttgart54%

Draw25%

Borussia Mönchengladbach22%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.03

Over 2.5 60% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Stuttgart)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanySven Jablonski

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 79

Team strength

VfB Stuttgart

Borussia Mönchengladbach

60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 36

70 AttackIn forecast 34

58 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—

Defense risk—

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VfB Stuttgart

Borussia Mönchengladbach

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

2.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.37

1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.79

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.23

80% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.30 ShotsContext 12.60

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

35% On target shareContext 35%

11.44 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

72% Box shareContext 71%

14% ConversionContext 13%

1.56 OffsidesContext 2.63

10.40 Shots allowedContext 19.40

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.20

3.30 BlocksContext 6.30

2.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.67

57% Save rateContext 70%

61% PossessionIn forecast 47%

552 PassesContext 407

481 Accurate passesContext 330

87% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.94

10.80 FoulsContext 8.00

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

VfB Stuttgart

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,024 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel331 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	VfB Stuttgart	Borussia Mönchengladbach
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 23 Aug	5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	331 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,024 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	14	15.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

33A. Nübel(G)

7M. Mittelstädt 3R. Hendriks 29Finn Jeltsch 4J. Vagnoman

6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor

18J. Leweling 26D. Undav 8Tiago Tomás

9E. Demirović

Borussia Mönchengladbach Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

33M. Nicolas(G)

26L. Ullrich 4K. Diks 30N. Elvedi 29J. Scally

16P. Sander 27R. Reitz

25R. Hack 7K. Stöger 9F. Honorat

18S. Machino

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

VfB Stuttgart Absences are shown before kick-off

Borussia Mönchengladbach Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

VfB Stuttgart+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

VfB Stuttgart · Home No home games yet this season.

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 VfB Stuttgart wins1 draws3 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.63 Over 2.588% Both scored88% Clean sheets13% · 0%

1 Feb 2025VfB Stuttgart1–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
14 Sep 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach1–3VfB Stuttgart
18 May 2024VfB Stuttgart4–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
14 Jan 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach3–1VfB Stuttgart
29 Apr 2023VfB Stuttgart2–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
4 Nov 2022Borussia Mönchengladbach3–1VfB Stuttgart

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	VfB Stuttgart	Borussia Mönchengladbach	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	0.00	3.10
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	60%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	VfB Stuttgart	Borussia Mönchengladbach	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	0.00	3.10
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	60%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	VfB Stuttgart	Borussia Mönchengladbach	League
Corners
Corners won	11.00	7.00
Corners conceded	5.00	6.00
Match total	16.00	13.00	9.89
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	4.00	2.00
Opponent cards	4.00	1.00
Match total	8.00	3.00	5.56
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	VfB Stuttgart	Borussia Mönchengladbach	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.80
Corners conceded	4.50	6.70
Match total	10.50	11.50	9.89
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.20
Opponent cards	2.30	0.90
Match total	4.40	2.10	5.56
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	10% 1/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 79 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.95league 5.10

Red cards0.09league 0.30

Cards 5+43%league 60%

Fouls19.9league 24.7

Penalties0.20league 0.40

Home wins42%league 30%

VfB Stuttgart4 with this referee

Record2-2-0 Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.5 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

D28 Sep 24A · VfL Wolfsburg2–22
W27 Jan 24H · RB Leipzig5–21
W21 May 23A · FSV Mainz 054–11
D30 Apr 22H · VfL Wolfsburg1–13

Borussia Mönchengladbach10 with this referee

Record4-4-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.9 Pens for · against2 · 3

L10 May 25A · Bayern München0–21
W15 Feb 25A · Union Berlin2–11
W24 Feb 24H · VfL Bochum5–22
L25 Nov 23A · Borussia Dortmund2–42
D6 Oct 23H · FSV Mainz 052–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.