VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
VfB Stuttgart
13th · 12 pts · 7 played
LWWWL
3–2Full time
BSC Young Boys
23rd · 9 pts · 7 played
WLLWL
VfB Stuttgart66.4%fair odds 1.51
Draw19.5%fair odds 5.12
BSC Young Boys14.0%fair odds 7.12
Expected goals2.26 – 0.95total 3.22
Likeliest score2–010.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
BSC Young Boys
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| VfB Stuttgart ↓ · BSC Young Boys → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfB Stuttgart goals, columns BSC Young Boys goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.3%9.75
- 2–19.8%10.22
- 1–19.1%10.98
- 1–08.6%11.62
- 3–07.7%12.92
- 3–17.4%13.54
- 2–24.7%21.41
- 0–04.5%22.42
- 4–04.4%22.83
- 4–14.2%23.92
Winning margin
23.9%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 4.19
20.0%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 5.01
22.6%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 4.42
19.5%
Draw
fair 5.12
9.3%
BSC Young Boys by 1
fair 10.78
3.5%
BSC Young Boys by 2
fair 28.20
1.2%
BSC Young Boys by 3+
fair 81.72
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
VfB Stuttgart goals
10%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
BSC Young Boys goals
39%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 66.4% | 65.1% | +1.3 pp |
| Draw | 19.5% | 20.3% | -0.8 pp |
| BSC Young Boys win | 14.0% | 14.6% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.4% | 60.2% | +2.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.6% | 54.5% | +1.1 pp |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 2.26 | 2.18 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals BSC Young Boys | 0.95 | 0.94 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- VfB Stuttgart win66.4%1.51
- Draw19.5%5.12
- BSC Young Boys win14.0%7.12
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw86.0%1.16
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or BSC Young Boys80.5%1.24
- Double chance BSC Young Boys or draw33.6%2.98
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart82.6%1.21
- Draw no bet BSC Young Boys17.4%5.73
Goals
- Over 0.595.5%1.05
- Over 1.583.6%1.20
- Over 2.562.4%1.60
- Over 3.540.2%2.49
- Over 4.522.3%4.49
- Under 1.516.4%6.09
- Under 2.537.6%2.66
- Under 3.559.8%1.67
Both teams to score
- Yes55.6%1.80
- No44.4%2.25
- Yes and over 2.546.5%2.15
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes32.4%3.09
- Draw and yes15.1%6.64
- BSC Young Boys win and yes8.1%12.33
Team goals
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.589.6%1.12
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.566.1%1.51
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.539.4%2.54
- BSC Young Boys over 0.561.5%1.63
- BSC Young Boys over 1.524.7%4.04
- BSC Young Boys over 2.57.2%13.87
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet38.5%2.60
- BSC Young Boys clean sheet10.4%9.62
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil34.0%2.94
- BSC Young Boys win to nil5.9%16.85
Handicap
- VfB Stuttgart −1.543.8%2.28
- VfB Stuttgart −2.523.9%4.19
- BSC Young Boys +1.556.2%1.78
- BSC Young Boys +2.576.1%1.31
- BSC Young Boys −1.54.8%20.97
- VfB Stuttgart +1.595.2%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored126
Favourite won59.5%
Avg chance given to result42.1%
1X2 Brier0.550
Over 2.5 called right54.0%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 16 | 38.5% | 43.8% |
| 40–50% | 53 | 45.1% | 47.2% |
| 50–60% | 41 | 54.7% | 78.0% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 66.0% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 74.0% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 108 of 126 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5433 | 0.5328 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.6% | 44.2% |
| Favourite won | 60.2% | 64.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 108 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 126 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.