VfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
VfB Stuttgart
13th · 12 pts · 7 played
LWWWL
3–2Full time
BSC Young Boys
23rd · 9 pts · 7 played
WLLWL
Our take
VfB Stuttgart were clear favourites.
VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for VfB Stuttgart. VfB Stuttgart had 4.2 days of rest, BSC Young Boys 7.1 and had to travel 241 km.
Away travel241 kmRest days4.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 1
VfB Stuttgart66%
Draw20%
BSC Young Boys14%
VfB Stuttgart61%
Draw22%
BSC Young Boys16%
VfB Stuttgart65%
Draw20%
BSC Young Boys15%
VfB Stuttgart59%
Draw22%
BSC Young Boys19%
VfB Stuttgart65%
Draw20%
BSC Young Boys15%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 35
Team strength
VfB StuttgartBSC Young Boys
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
42
70
AttackIn forecast
45
58
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBSC Young Boys
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfB StuttgartBSC Young Boys
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
57%
Scored inContext
71%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
16.86
ShotsContext
11.57
5.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.71
33%
On target shareContext
32%
11.43
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
68%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
3.33
10.43
Shots allowedContext
16.14
3.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.14
3.14
BlocksContext
3.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
68%
Save rateContext
61%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
505
PassesContext
407
436
Accurate passesContext
341
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.86
FoulsContext
11.43
14.14
Fouls sufferedContext
8.86
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.70
ShotsContext
10.30
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
40%
On target shareContext
35%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.86
63%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.78
11.80
Shots allowedContext
15.40
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.11
3.60
BlocksContext
4.00
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
66%
Save rateContext
63%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
484
PassesContext
393
408
Accurate passesContext
328
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.70
FoulsContext
12.80
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,280 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
BSC Young Boys
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel241 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
BSC Young Boys |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 7.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 241 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,280 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
1F. Bredlow(G)
7M. Mittelstädt
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
22L. Assignon
6A. Stiller
30Chema Andrés
10C. Führich
26D. Undav
27B. Bouanani
9E. Demirović
BSC Young Boys
Confirmed XI
1M. Keller(G)
23L. Benito
30S. Lauper
5G. Wüthrich
17S. Janko
6E. Fernandes
37A. Gigović
77J. Monteiro
10A. Sanches
16C. Fassnacht
29C. Bedia
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
BSC Young Boys
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- BSC Young Boys-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
BSC Young Boys · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 VfB Stuttgart wins0 draws0 BSC Young Boys wins
Goals per game5.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 11 Dec 2024VfB Stuttgart5–1BSC Young Boys
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | BSC Young Boys | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 3.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 57% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 43% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| VfB Stuttgart | BSC Young Boys | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 57% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 29% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | BSC Young Boys | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.57 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.57 | 7.80 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 5.29 | 3.72 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | BSC Young Boys | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 8.11 | 9.76 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.50 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.49league 4.13
Red cards0.20league 0.21
Cards 5+26%league 42%
Fouls24.6league 24.2
Penalties0.40league 0.36
Home wins46%league 51%
VfB StuttgartNo previous matches with this referee.
BSC Young BoysNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart7 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
BSC Young Boys7 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
6
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
7
76-90
BSC Young Boys10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
Next fixtures UEFA Europa League
View all fixtures →
Nottingham Forest
Ferencvarosi TC
40
Aston Villa
Red Bull Salzburg
32
Lille
SC Freiburg
10
Lyon
PAOK
42
VfB Stuttgart
BSC Young Boys
32
FC Porto
Rangers
31
Celtic
Utrecht
42
FC Midtjylland
Dinamo Zagreb
20
GO Ahead Eagles
SC Braga
00
Real Betis
Feyenoord
21
FC Basel 1893
Plzen
01
FCSB
Fenerbahce
11
Ludogorets
Nice
10
FK Crvena Zvezda
Celta Vigo
11
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Bologna
03
Panathinaikos
AS Roma
11
Sturm Graz
Brann
10
Genk
Malmo FF
21