VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
VfB Stuttgart37.0%fair odds 2.71
Draw25.6%fair odds 3.91
FC Porto37.4%fair odds 2.67
Expected goals1.48 – 1.49total 2.98
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Porto
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| VfB Stuttgart ↓ · FC Porto → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfB Stuttgart goals, columns FC Porto goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.41
- 1–28.4%11.86
- 2–18.4%11.95
- 0–17.0%14.25
- 1–07.0%14.36
- 2–26.2%16.00
- 0–05.7%17.55
- 0–25.7%17.58
- 2–05.6%17.84
- 1–34.2%23.82
Winning margin
6.8%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 14.65
11.1%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 9.03
19.1%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 5.25
25.6%
Draw
fair 3.91
19.2%
FC Porto by 1
fair 5.21
11.2%
FC Porto by 2
fair 8.90
7.0%
FC Porto by 3+
fair 14.29
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
VfB Stuttgart goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
FC Porto goals
22%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 37.0% | 36.2% | +0.8 pp |
| Draw | 25.6% | 26.7% | -1.1 pp |
| FC Porto win | 37.4% | 37.1% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.1% | 52.5% | +4.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.5% | 57.0% | +3.6 pp |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 1.48 | 1.38 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals FC Porto | 1.49 | 1.40 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- VfB Stuttgart win37.0%2.71
- Draw25.6%3.91
- FC Porto win37.4%2.67
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw62.6%1.60
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or FC Porto74.4%1.34
- Double chance FC Porto or draw63.0%1.59
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart49.7%2.01
- Draw no bet FC Porto50.3%1.99
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.580.3%1.24
- Over 2.557.1%1.75
- Over 3.534.7%2.88
- Over 4.518.1%5.53
- Under 1.519.7%5.08
- Under 2.542.9%2.33
- Under 3.565.3%1.53
Both teams to score
- Yes60.5%1.65
- No39.5%2.53
- Yes and over 2.548.6%2.06
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes20.2%4.95
- Draw and yes19.9%5.02
- FC Porto win and yes20.4%4.89
Team goals
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.577.3%1.29
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.543.6%2.29
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.518.7%5.35
- FC Porto over 0.577.5%1.29
- FC Porto over 1.544.0%2.27
- FC Porto over 2.519.0%5.28
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet22.5%4.45
- FC Porto clean sheet22.7%4.40
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil16.8%5.97
- FC Porto win to nil17.0%5.88
Handicap
- VfB Stuttgart −1.517.9%5.59
- VfB Stuttgart −2.56.8%14.65
- FC Porto +1.582.1%1.22
- FC Porto +2.593.2%1.07
- FC Porto −1.518.2%5.48
- VfB Stuttgart +1.581.8%1.22
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.