VfB Stuttgart vs FC Porto – 12 Mar 2026

UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Thu, Mar 12 · 17:45 Stuttgart Arena, Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart

1–2Full time

FC Porto

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 70). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FC Porto. VfB Stuttgart had 5.1 days of rest, FC Porto 4 and had to travel 1,631 km.

Away travel1,631 kmRest days5.1 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 2

VfB Stuttgart37%

Draw26%

FC Porto37%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.49

VfB Stuttgart38%

Draw27%

FC Porto35%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.30

VfB Stuttgart37%

Draw26%

FC Porto38%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.49

VfB Stuttgart30%

Draw25%

FC Porto45%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.67

VfB Stuttgart36%

Draw27%

FC Porto37%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.40

Over 2.5 57% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Stuttgart)

No weather data yet

Referee · LithuaniaDonatas Rumsas

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 22

Team strength

VfB Stuttgart

FC Porto

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 77

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

70 AttackIn forecast 74

58 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VfB Stuttgart

FC Porto

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.65

+0.46 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

90% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.70 ShotsContext 13.40

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

39% On target shareContext 35%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

67% Box shareContext 59%

14% ConversionContext 13%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.44

10.80 Shots allowedContext 9.90

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50

2.67 BlocksContext 3.60

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.11

66% Save rateContext 79%

62% PossessionIn forecast 54%

551 PassesContext 412

469 Accurate passesContext 346

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.85

8.20 FoulsContext 13.10

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

VfB Stuttgart

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km297 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Porto

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,631 km547 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	VfB Stuttgart	FC Porto
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Mar	4Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,631 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	297 km	547 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

33A. Nübel(G)

3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 29Finn Jeltsch 28N. Nartey

6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor

18J. Leweling 26D. Undav 11B. El Khannouss

9E. Demirović

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

12Z. Sanusi 5J. Bednarek 3Thiago Silva 20Alberto Baio

86Rodrigo Mora 13P. Rosario 42S. Fofana

17Borja Sainz 29T. Moffi 7William Gomes

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

VfB Stuttgart Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Porto Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

VfB Stuttgart+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
FC Porto-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

VfB Stuttgart · Home No home games yet this season.

FC Porto · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	VfB Stuttgart	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.98
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	61%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	VfB Stuttgart	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	1.70
Conceded per game	1.20	0.80
Match goals	3.60	2.50	2.98
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	60%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	61%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	VfB Stuttgart	FC Porto
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	VfB Stuttgart	FC Porto
Corners
Corners won	5.60	5.33
Corners conceded	3.80	4.11
Match total	9.40	9.44
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.00
Opponent cards	0.70	3.20
Match total	2.20	5.20
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Donatas Rumsas Lithuania · 22 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.73

Red cards0.23

Cards 5+32%

Fouls24.3

Penalties0.14

Home wins32%

VfB Stuttgart

No previous matches with this referee.

FC Porto

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.