VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 – 26 Oct 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 26 · 16:30 MHPArena, Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart 5th · 15 pts · 7 played LWWWW

2–1Full time

FSV Mainz 05 16th · 4 pts · 7 played LWLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

VfB Stuttgart were slight favourites.

VfB Stuttgart were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 52). VfB Stuttgart had 3 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 8.1 and had to travel 148 km.

Away travel148 kmRest days3 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 1

VfB Stuttgart52%

Draw24%

FSV Mainz 0525%

Expected goals 1.85 – 1.22

VfB Stuttgart49%

Draw26%

FSV Mainz 0525%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09

VfB Stuttgart52%

Draw24%

FSV Mainz 0524%

Expected goals 1.85 – 1.21

VfB Stuttgart44%

Draw25%

FSV Mainz 0531%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.36

VfB Stuttgart50%

Draw26%

FSV Mainz 0525%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09

Over 2.5 59% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Stuttgart)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 108

Team strength

VfB Stuttgart

FSV Mainz 05

62 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 55

70 AttackIn forecast 68

58 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—

Defense risk—

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

VfB Stuttgart

FSV Mainz 05

1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14

0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.21

0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

100% Scored inContext 43%

57% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.71 ShotsContext 12.86

5.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

37% On target shareContext 23%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.43

62% Box shareContext 73%

11% ConversionContext 9%

1.57 OffsidesContext 3.33

10.57 Shots allowedContext 14.86

3.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71

3.00 BlocksContext 3.57

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57

87% Save rateContext 55%

59% PossessionIn forecast 52%

533 PassesContext 407

459 Accurate passesContext 316

86% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.71

11.57 FoulsContext 11.29

12.86 Fouls sufferedContext 13.29

1.57 Yellow cardsContext 2.57

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.29

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

80% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.30 ShotsContext 14.30

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

33% On target shareContext 25%

10.40 Shots in the boxContext 10.20

64% Box shareContext 71%

8% ConversionContext 10%

1.56 OffsidesContext 3.44

11.20 Shots allowedContext 11.90

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

3.10 BlocksContext 3.11

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

82% Save rateContext 58%

60% PossessionIn forecast 53%

531 PassesContext 415

457 Accurate passesContext 326

86% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.81

11.60 FoulsContext 11.10

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

VfB Stuttgart

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km4,388 km in 14d

Schedule load18%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FSV Mainz 05

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel148 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	VfB Stuttgart	FSV Mainz 05
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 18	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct	8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	148 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,388 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

33A. Nübel(G)

2A. Al Dakhil 23D. Zagadou 29Finn Jeltsch

4J. Vagnoman 28N. Nartey 30Chema Andrés 15P. Stenzel

10C. Führich 18J. Leweling

26D. Undav

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

27R. Zentner(G)

31D. Kohr 16S. Bell 21D. da Costa

30S. Widmer 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 2P. Mwene

7J. Lee 8P. Nebel

17B. Hollerbach

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

VfB Stuttgart Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

FSV Mainz 05 Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

VfB Stuttgart+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FSV Mainz 05+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

VfB Stuttgart · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 0.00

FSV Mainz 05 · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	VfB Stuttgart	FSV Mainz 05
VfL Wolfsburg	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 A
1.FC Köln	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 H
Points	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 VfB Stuttgart wins3 draws1 FSV Mainz 05 wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.25 Over 2.563% Both scored75% Clean sheets13% · 25%

25 Jan 2025FSV Mainz 052–0VfB Stuttgart
31 Aug 2024VfB Stuttgart3–3FSV Mainz 05
11 Feb 2024VfB Stuttgart3–1FSV Mainz 05
16 Sep 2023FSV Mainz 051–3VfB Stuttgart
21 May 2023FSV Mainz 051–4VfB Stuttgart
21 Jan 2023VfB Stuttgart1–1FSV Mainz 05

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	VfB Stuttgart	FSV Mainz 05	Forecast
Scored per game	1.57	1.14
Conceded per game	0.86	2.00
Match goals	2.43	3.14	3.07
Over 1.5	71%	71%
Over 2.5	57%	43%	59%
Over 3.5	14%	43%
Both teams scored	43%	43%	60%
Clean sheets	57%	0%
Failed to score	0%	57%
Games	7	7

	VfB Stuttgart	FSV Mainz 05	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.14
Conceded per game	1.00	2.00
Match goals	2.30	3.14	3.07
Over 1.5	70%	71%
Over 2.5	50%	43%	59%
Over 3.5	10%	43%
Both teams scored	40%	43%	60%
Clean sheets	40%	0%
Failed to score	20%	57%
Games	10	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	VfB Stuttgart	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	5.86	5.57
Corners conceded	5.29	3.14
Match total	11.15	8.71	9.84
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.57	3.00
Opponent cards	1.71	1.86
Match total	3.28	4.86	4.42
Over 3.5	29% 2/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7

	VfB Stuttgart	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	6.30
Corners conceded	4.40	3.00
Match total	11.00	9.30	9.84
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.40
Opponent cards	2.30	1.90
Match total	3.90	4.30	4.42
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 108 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.77league 4.21

Red cards0.15league 0.23

Cards 5+54%league 42%

Fouls21.9league 22.5

Penalties0.30league 0.39

Home wins44%league 42%

VfB Stuttgart8 with this referee

Record2-2-4 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against3 · 1

W18 Jan 25H · SC Freiburg4–05
L10 Nov 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–32
D27 Apr 24A · Bayer Leverkusen2–23
D31 Mar 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim3–31
L28 Oct 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–32

FSV Mainz 058 with this referee

Record5-1-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.8 Pens for · against3 · 0

D19 Apr 25H · VfL Wolfsburg2–22
W22 Feb 25H · FC St. Pauli2–03
L19 Oct 24H · RB Leipzig0–21
W13 Apr 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim4–10
L26 Jan 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.