VfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
FSV Mainz 05 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 50). VfL Wolfsburg had 8 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 7 and had to travel 323 km.
Away travel323 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
VfL Wolfsburg40%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0534%
VfL Wolfsburg40%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0533%
VfL Wolfsburg40%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0534%
VfL Wolfsburg33%
Draw26%
FSV Mainz 0541%
VfL Wolfsburg40%
Draw27%
FSV Mainz 0533%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wolfsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySören Storks
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 19
Team strength
VfL Wolfsburg
FSV Mainz 05
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
50
AttackIn forecast
68
42
DefenceIn forecast
56
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFSV Mainz 05
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VfL WolfsburgFSV Mainz 05
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
—
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
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On target shareContext
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—
Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
50%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.90
ShotsContext
15.30
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
27%
On target shareContext
29%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
11.30
60%
Box shareContext
73%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
1.57
OffsidesContext
3.22
13.20
Shots allowedContext
10.10
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.30
BlocksContext
2.00
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
65%
Save rateContext
63%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
418
PassesContext
423
336
Accurate passesContext
338
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.96
8.80
FoulsContext
10.90
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km838 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FSV Mainz 05
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel323 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfL Wolfsburg |
FSV Mainz 05 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 323 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 838 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
25A. Zehnter
4K. Koulierakis
15M. Jenz
2K. Fischer
5Vinicius Souza
27M. Arnold
39P. Wimmer
10L. Majer
7A. Skov Olsen
17D. Pejčinović
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed XI
27R. Zentner(G)
31D. Kohr
16S. Bell
21D. da Costa
2P. Mwene
6K. Sano
10N. Amiri
19A. Caci
7J. Lee
9A. Nordin
44N. Weiper
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfL Wolfsburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
FSV Mainz 05
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- VfL Wolfsburg+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FSV Mainz 05+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
VfL Wolfsburg · Home
No home games yet this season.
FSV Mainz 05 · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 VfL Wolfsburg wins2 draws2 FSV Mainz 05 wins
Goals per game2.38 – 1.50
Over 2.588%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 13%
- 19 Apr 2025FSV Mainz 052–2VfL Wolfsburg
- 8 Dec 2024VfL Wolfsburg4–3FSV Mainz 05
- 18 May 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–3FSV Mainz 05
- 13 Jan 2024FSV Mainz 051–1VfL Wolfsburg
- 30 Apr 2023VfL Wolfsburg3–0FSV Mainz 05
- 5 Nov 2022FSV Mainz 050–3VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfL Wolfsburg | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 1.00 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | FSV Mainz 05 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 1.00 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfL Wolfsburg | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 10.00 | 10.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| VfL Wolfsburg | FSV Mainz 05 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.70 | 10.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sören Storks Germany · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.16league 5.13
Red cards0.11league 0.27
Cards 5+53%league 60%
Fouls20.3league 23.5
Penalties0.16league 0.40
Home wins42%league 33%
VfL Wolfsburg1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D27 Jan 24H · 1.FC Köln1–15
FSV Mainz 051 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W20 Sep 24A · FC Augsburg3–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
VfL Wolfsburg1 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
FSV Mainz 051 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
FSV Mainz 0510 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
