VfL Wolfsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
VfL Wolfsburg40.5%fair odds 2.47
Draw25.9%fair odds 3.86
FSV Mainz 0533.6%fair odds 2.98
Expected goals1.53 – 1.37total 2.90
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FSV Mainz 05
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| VfL Wolfsburg ↓ · FSV Mainz 05 → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are VfL Wolfsburg goals, columns FSV Mainz 05 goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.22
- 2–18.8%11.35
- 1–27.9%12.63
- 1–07.8%12.80
- 0–17.0%14.37
- 2–06.4%15.57
- 0–06.1%16.30
- 2–26.0%16.56
- 0–25.2%19.27
- 3–14.5%22.33
Winning margin
7.9%
VfL Wolfsburg by 3+
fair 12.60
12.3%
VfL Wolfsburg by 2
fair 8.16
20.3%
VfL Wolfsburg by 1
fair 4.93
25.9%
Draw
fair 3.86
18.2%
FSV Mainz 05 by 1
fair 5.50
9.9%
FSV Mainz 05 by 2
fair 10.10
5.5%
FSV Mainz 05 by 3+
fair 18.12
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
VfL Wolfsburg goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
FSV Mainz 05 goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg win | 40.5% | 40.0% | +0.5 pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 27.1% | -1.2 pp |
| FSV Mainz 05 win | 33.6% | 32.9% | +0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 50.1% | +5.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.0% | 55.0% | +4.0 pp |
| Expected goals VfL Wolfsburg | 1.53 | 1.42 | +0.11 |
| Expected goals FSV Mainz 05 | 1.37 | 1.26 | +0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- VfL Wolfsburg win40.5%2.47
- Draw25.9%3.86
- FSV Mainz 05 win33.6%2.98
- Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw66.4%1.51
- Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or FSV Mainz 0574.1%1.35
- Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw59.5%1.68
- Draw no bet VfL Wolfsburg54.6%1.83
- Draw no bet FSV Mainz 0545.4%2.21
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.07
- Over 1.579.1%1.26
- Over 2.555.3%1.81
- Over 3.533.0%3.03
- Over 4.516.8%5.97
- Under 1.520.9%4.78
- Under 2.544.7%2.24
- Under 3.567.0%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes59.0%1.70
- No41.0%2.44
- Yes and over 2.546.8%2.14
- VfL Wolfsburg win and yes21.2%4.71
- Draw and yes19.8%5.05
- FSV Mainz 05 win and yes18.0%5.57
Team goals
- VfL Wolfsburg over 0.578.2%1.28
- VfL Wolfsburg over 1.545.1%2.22
- VfL Wolfsburg over 2.519.8%5.06
- FSV Mainz 05 over 0.574.6%1.34
- FSV Mainz 05 over 1.539.8%2.51
- FSV Mainz 05 over 2.516.0%6.27
- VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet25.4%3.94
- FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet21.8%4.60
- VfL Wolfsburg win to nil19.3%5.19
- FSV Mainz 05 win to nil15.6%6.40
Handicap
- VfL Wolfsburg −1.520.2%4.95
- VfL Wolfsburg −2.57.9%12.60
- FSV Mainz 05 +1.579.8%1.25
- FSV Mainz 05 +2.592.1%1.09
- FSV Mainz 05 −1.515.4%6.49
- VfL Wolfsburg +1.584.6%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored15
Favourite won46.7%
Avg chance given to result38.2%
1X2 Brier0.662
Over 2.5 called right66.7%
BTTS called right60.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 38.6% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 4 | 46.9% | 25.0% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 54.5% | 40.0% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 65.5% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 15 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 15 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.